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Credibility and Exchange Rate Management in Developing Countries

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  • Pierre-Richard Agénor

Abstract

The paper examines the role of credibility in the conduct of exchange rate policy in developing countries, The analysis is based on a model in which policymakers are concerned about inflation and external competitiveness. Price setters in the nontraded goods sector of the economy adjust prices in reaction to anticipated fluctuations in the domestic price of tradable goods. This type of model is showm to generate a “devaluation bias” which undermines the credibility of a fixed exchange rate. The effect of reputational factors, signaling considerations, and joining a currency union as possible solutions to this bias is examined.

Suggested Citation

  • Pierre-Richard Agénor, 1991. "Credibility and Exchange Rate Management in Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 1991/087, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:1991/087
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    Cited by:

    1. Thiam Hee NG, 2002. "Should The Southeast Asian Countries Form A Currency Union?," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 40(2), pages 113-134, June.
    2. Mark P. Taylor & Lucio Sarno, 2001. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective and, If So, How Does It Work?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(3), pages 839-868, September.
    3. Schweickert, Rainer & Nunnenkamp, Peter & Hiemenz, Ulrich, 1992. "Stabilisierung durch feste Wechselkurse: Fehlschlag in Entwicklungsländern - Erfolgsrezept für Osteuropa?," Kiel Discussion Papers 181, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    4. Jose Veiga, Francisco, 1999. "What causes the failure of inflation stabilization plans?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 169-194, February.
    5. Steven B. Kamin, 1991. "Exchange rate rules in support of disinflation programs in developing countries," International Finance Discussion Papers 402, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. SAWADA Yasuyuki & Pan A. YOTOPOULOS, 2001. "Currency Substitution, Speculation and Crises: Theory and Empirical Analysis," ESRI Discussion paper series 007, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    7. BEN ALI Mohamed Sami, 2006. "Capital Account Liberalization And Exchange Rate Regime Choice, What Scope For Flexibility In Tunisia?," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp815, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    8. repec:zbw:bofrdp:1992_036 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Chris Canavan & Mariano Tommasi, 1997. "Visibility and Credibility in the Political Economy of Reform," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 346., Boston College Department of Economics.
    10. Yotopoulos, Pan A., 1997. "Financial Crises and the Benefits of Mildly Repressed Exchange Rates," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 202, Stockholm School of Economics.
    11. Jason Furman & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1998. "Economic Crises: Evidence and Insights from East Asia," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 1-136.
    12. Honkapohja, Seppo & Pikkarainen, Pentti, 1992. "Country Characteristics and the Choice of the Exchange Rate Regime: Are Mini-skirts Followed by Maxis?," CEPR Discussion Papers 744, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Zhang, Zhichao, 2001. "Choosing an exchange rate regime during economic transition: The case of China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 203-226.
    14. Bossone, Biagio, 2019. "The portfolio theory of inflation and policy (in)effectiveness," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 13, pages 1-25.

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