IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iie/pbrief/pb21-7.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Does the new fiscal consensus in advanced economies travel to emerging markets?

Author

Listed:
  • Olivier J Blanchard

    (Peterson Institute for International Economics)

  • Josh Felman

    (JH Consulting)

  • Arvind Subramanian

    (Peterson Institute for International Economics)

Abstract

A new consensus on fiscal policy has emerged in advanced economies, that stimulus is both needed and feasible. At first blush, the scope for stimulus seems even greater in emerging markets, since their primary deficits are smaller and interest-growth differentials more favorable, suggesting that they can sustain much higher levels of debt. But more careful analysis suggests that this is not the case. The authors point out that what matters for debt sustainability are not current conditions but rather the range of possible future outcomes. And prospects for interest rates and growth are more uncertain in emerging markets, while primary balances are more difficult to adjust. As a result, debt limits are in fact tighter than advanced economies. Taking India as a case study, the authors argue that what is needed in the current situation is responsible, slow fiscal adjustment. More generally, one should be careful about importing wholesale the new fiscal consensus into emerging markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Olivier J Blanchard & Josh Felman & Arvind Subramanian, 2021. "Does the new fiscal consensus in advanced economies travel to emerging markets?," Policy Briefs PB21-7, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:iie:pbrief:pb21-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.piie.com/publications/policy-briefs/does-new-fiscal-consensus-advanced-economies-travel-emerging-markets
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Franziska L. Ohnsorge & Kenneth S. Rogoff & M. Ayhan Kose, 2022. "The Aftermath of Debt Surges," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 637-663, August.
    2. Markus dup Brunnermeier & Kristin dup Forbes & Maurice Obstfeld, 2021. "Jackson Hole 2021 - Monetary Policy in an Uneven Economy (Panel)," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, August.
    3. Roy Havemann & Hylton Hollander, 2022. "Fiscal policy in times of fiscal stress: Or what to do when r > g," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2022-52, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    4. Adam S. Posen, 2021. "Fiscal Success During COVID-19 Says Believe the Good News," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 56(4), pages 190-193, July.
    5. Ashima Goyal, 2021. "Using the snowball effect in Indian post Covid-19 paths to fiscal consolidation," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2021-016, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    6. Gudmundsson, Tryggvi & Klyuev, Vladimir & Medina, Leandro & Nandwa, Boaz & Plotnikov, Dmitry & Schiffrer, Francisco & Yang, Di, 2022. "Emerging markets: Prospects and challenges," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 827-841.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iie:pbrief:pb21-7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peterson Institute webmaster (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iieeeus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.