An examination of the IFS corporation tax forecasting record
This paper examines the corporation tax forecasting techniques used by the Institute for Fiscal Studies. For current year forecasts a judgemental forecast is found to have performed better than relying solely on a simple model or information on the receipts available so far in the current financial year. For longer time horizons the judgemental forecast has performed slightly less well than the modelled forecast. While forecasts made later in the financial year have led to more accurate estimates of receipts in the current year no evidence is found that this has improved the accuracy of longer run forecasts. In the short term inaccuracies in the modelling process are found to be more important than errors in forecasting growth in corporate profits. However the latter is still an important component of errors and one that grows substantially in relative importance as the forecast horizon increases.
|Date of creation:||Nov 2003|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (+44) 020 7291 4800
Fax: (+44) 020 7323 4780
Web page: http://www.ifs.org.uk
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Postal: The Institute for Fiscal Studies 7 Ridgmount Street LONDON WC1E 7AE|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Chris Giles & John Hall, 1998. "Forecasting the PSBR outside government: the IFS perspective," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 19(1), pages 83-100, February.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:03/21. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Stephanie Seavers)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.