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An examination of the IFS corporation tax forecasting record

  • Suman Basu

    (Institute for Fiscal Studies)

  • Carl Emmerson


    (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies)

  • Christine Frayne


    (Institute for Fiscal Studies and European Commission (formerly IFS staff))

This paper examines the corporation tax forecasting techniques used by the Institute for Fiscal Studies. For current year forecasts a judgemental forecast is found to have performed better than relying solely on a simple model or information on the receipts available so far in the current financial year. For longer time horizons the judgemental forecast has performed slightly less well than the modelled forecast. While forecasts made later in the financial year have led to more accurate estimates of receipts in the current year no evidence is found that this has improved the accuracy of longer run forecasts. In the short term inaccuracies in the modelling process are found to be more important than errors in forecasting growth in corporate profits. However the latter is still an important component of errors and one that grows substantially in relative importance as the forecast horizon increases.

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Paper provided by Institute for Fiscal Studies in its series IFS Working Papers with number W03/21.

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Length: 36 pp
Date of creation: Nov 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:03/21
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  1. Chris Giles & John Hall, 1998. "Forecasting the PSBR outside government: the IFS perspective," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 19(1), pages 83-100, February.
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