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Exposure-based Cash-Flow-at-Risk under Macroeconomic Uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Andrén, Niclas

    (Department of Business Administration)

  • Jankensgård, Håkan

    (The Research Institute of Industrial Economics)

  • Oxelheim, Lars

    () (The Research Institute of Industrial Economics)

Abstract

In this paper we derive an exposure-based measure of Cash-Flow-at-Risk (CFaR). Existing approaches to calculating CFaR either only focus on cash flow conditional on market changes or neglect market-risk exposures entirely. We argue here that an essential first step in a risk-management program is to quantify cash-flow exposure to macroeconomic and market risk. This is the information relevant for corporate hedging. However, it is the total level of cash flow in relation to the firm’s capital needs that is the information relevant for decision-making. The firm’s overall CFaR is then calculated based on an assessment of corporate risk exposure.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrén, Niclas & Jankensgård, Håkan & Oxelheim, Lars, 2005. "Exposure-based Cash-Flow-at-Risk under Macroeconomic Uncertainty," Working Paper Series 635, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:0635
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    File URL: http://www.ifn.se/Wfiles/wp/WP635.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Tarek Ibrahim Eldomiaty & Mohamed Hashem Rashwan & Mohamed Bahaa El Din & Waleed Tayel, 2016. "Firm, industry and economic determinants of working capital at risk," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(04), pages 1-29, December.
    2. Hsia Hua Sheng & Cristiane Karcher & Paulo Hubert Jr., 2009. "An Alternative Model of Risk in Non-financial Companies Applied to the Brazilian Pulp and Paper Industry," Brazilian Review of Finance, Brazilian Society of Finance, vol. 7(3), pages 347-360.
    3. Mónika Kuti, 2011. "Cash Flow at Risk, Financial Flexibility and Financing Constraint," Public Finance Quarterly, State Audit Office of Hungary, vol. 56(4), pages 505-517.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cash-Flow-at Risk; Corporate Hedging; Downside Risk; Risk Exposure; MUST-analysis; Value-at-Risk;

    JEL classification:

    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • G30 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - General
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • M21 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Economics - - - Business Economics

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