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The Emerging Global Market for Energy Transition Critical Minerals: Competition, Cooperation, or Cartelisation?

Author

Listed:
  • Sen, Anupama

    (Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, University of Oxford)

  • Jamasb, Tooraj

    (Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School)

  • Toba, Natsuko

    (Energy Policy Research Group, University of Cambridge)

Abstract

As the clean energy transition progresses, critical minerals and metals will be essential components in the deployment of clean energy technologies, with estimates of their demand set to soar. However, proven reserves, as well as processing facilities, are geographically concentrated in a small number of countries. This paper addresses the following research question: how will the emerging market structure for critical minerals develop: will producers and consumers compete, cooperate, or cartelise? We contribute to the literature by exploring frameworks to describe some possible outcomes of market evolution based on characteristics of the current critical mineral market, preconditions for competition, cooperation or cartelisation, and case studies. We draw on insights from collusive oligopolies in the international market for oil and gas.

Suggested Citation

  • Sen, Anupama & Jamasb, Tooraj & Toba, Natsuko, 2025. "The Emerging Global Market for Energy Transition Critical Minerals: Competition, Cooperation, or Cartelisation?," Working Papers 6-2025, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:cbsnow:2025_006
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    JEL classification:

    • L13 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy
    • Q21 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q34 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Natural Resources and Domestic and International Conflicts
    • Q35 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Hydrocarbon Resources
    • Q37 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Issues in International Trade
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy

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