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A Markov model of Diabetic Retinopathy Progression for the Economic Evaluation of a novel DR prognostic device, CHERE Working Paper 2007/14


  • Julia Ting
  • Donald Martin
  • Marion Haas

    () (CHERE, University of Technology, Sydney)


The initial diagnosis of Diabetic Retinopathy (DR) is often in the advance stages of the condition, as patients are only promoted for an examination when sight has been affected. An innovative prognostic technique has recently been made available which can non-invasively detect the damaging effects of high blood glucose before the development of clinical symptoms. This innovation offers the opportunity to patients to make the necessary behavioural and medicinal modification to prevent further progress of the disease. This paper reports the development of a Markov model which emulates the natural progression of Diabetic Retinopathy based on data from clinical trials. The purpose of such a model is to estimate the chronic cost and health outcomes of DR, and it may be modified to reflect the potential changes in current practice or condition changes, hence allowing for an economic evaluation of the DR prognostic test. The implications and limitations of the model were also discussed in the paper.

Suggested Citation

  • Julia Ting & Donald Martin & Marion Haas, 2007. "A Markov model of Diabetic Retinopathy Progression for the Economic Evaluation of a novel DR prognostic device, CHERE Working Paper 2007/14," Working Papers 2007/14, CHERE, University of Technology, Sydney.
  • Handle: RePEc:her:chewps:2007/14

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    File Function: First version December 2007, Current version December 2007
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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Harper, P. R. & Sayyad, M. G. & de Senna, V. & Shahani, A. K. & Yajnik, C. S. & Shelgikar, K. M., 2003. "A systems modelling approach for the prevention and treatment of diabetic retinopathy," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 150(1), pages 81-91, October.
    2. Polak, B. C. P. & Crijns, H. & Casparie, A. F. & Niessen, L. W., 2003. "Cost-effectiveness of glycemic control and ophthalmological care in diabetic retinopathy," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 89-97, April.
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    More about this item


    Diabetic retinopathy; economic evaluation;

    JEL classification:

    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General


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