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Are risk averse agents more optimistic? A Bayesian estimation approach

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  • Selima Benmansour

    (DRM - Dauphine Recherches en Management - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Elyès Jouini

    (CEREMADE - CEntre de REcherches en MAthématiques de la DEcision - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Clotilde Napp

    (DRM - Dauphine Recherches en Management - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - Groupe ENSAE-ENSAI - Groupe des Écoles Nationales d'Économie et Statistique - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - Groupe ENSAE-ENSAI - Groupe des Écoles Nationales d'Économie et Statistique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Jean-Michel Marin

    (SELECT - Model selection in statistical learning - LMO - Laboratoire de Mathématiques d'Orsay - UP11 - Université Paris-Sud - Paris 11 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Centre Inria de Saclay - Inria - Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique)

  • Christian P. Robert

    (CEREMADE - CEntre de REcherches en MAthématiques de la DEcision - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

Our aim is to analyze the link between optimism and risk aversion in a subjective expected utility setting and to estimate the average level of optimism when weighted by risk tolerance.This quantity is of particular importance since it characterizes the consensus belief in risk-taking situations with heterogeneous beliefs. Its estimation leads to a nontrivial statistical problem. We start from a large lottery survey (1536 individuals). We assume that individuals have true unobservable characteristics and that their answers in the survey are noisy realizations of these characteristics. We adopt a Bayesian approach for the statistical analysis of this problem and use an hybrid MCMC approximation method to numerically estimate the distributions of the unobservable characteristics. We obtain that individuals are on average pessimistic and thatpessimism and risk tolerance are positively correlated. As a consequence, we conclude that theconsensus belief is biased towards pessimism.

Suggested Citation

  • Selima Benmansour & Elyès Jouini & Clotilde Napp & Jean-Michel Marin & Christian P. Robert, 2007. "Are risk averse agents more optimistic? A Bayesian estimation approach," Working Papers halshs-00163678, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00163678
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00163678v1
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    2. Guibril Zerbo, 2024. "Disposition à payer pour l’assurance contre les risques naturels: une étude de terrain au Burkina Faso," EconomiX Working Papers 2024-7, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    3. Giuseppe Albanese & Guido de Blasio & Paolo Sestito, 2013. "Trust and preferences: evidence from survey data," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 911, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    4. Elyès Jouini & Clotilde Napp, 2008. "Are More Risk-Averse Agents More Optimistic? Insights from a Simple Rational Expectations Equilibrium Model," Post-Print halshs-00176630, HAL.
    5. Weinstock, Eyal & Sonsino, Doron, 2014. "Are risk-seekers more optimistic? Non-parametric approach," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 236-251.
    6. Giuseppe Albanese & Guido de Blasio & Paolo Sestito, 2017. "Trust, risk and time preferences: evidence from survey data," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 64(4), pages 367-388, December.
    7. Christian Gollier & Alexander Muermann, 2010. "Optimal Choice and Beliefs with Ex Ante Savoring and Ex Post Disappointment," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 56(8), pages 1272-1284, August.
    8. Alessandro Bucciol & Raffaele Miniaci, 2011. "Household Portfolios and Implicit Risk Preference," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(4), pages 1235-1250, November.
    9. Luisa Menapace & Gregory Colson & Roberta Raffaelli, 2016. "A comparison of hypothetical risk attitude elicitation instruments for explaining farmer crop insurance purchases," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 43(1), pages 113-135.
    10. Jouini, Elyès & Napp, Clotilde, 2008. "Are more risk averse agents more optimistic? Insights from a rational expectations model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 73-76, October.

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