Natural Disasters and Haitian Emigration to the U.S.: The Moderating Role of Political Instability[Catastrophes Naturelles et Émigration Haïtienne vers les États-Unis : le Rôle Modérateur de l’Instabilité Politique]

This paper investigates the relationship between natural disasters and emigration from Haiti to the United States, focusing on the moderating role of political instability. Haiti is one of the most disaster-prone and politically fragile countries in the Western Hemisphere, experiencing an average of 3.1 disasters per year between 1990 and 2020. Drawing on thirty years of national-level time series data, this study employs a linear Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression model with interaction terms to test whether political instability amplifies the migration response to disasters. The results reveal a strong and statistically significant link between disaster frequency and emigration flows. Moreover, this relationship is significantly intensified in years of heightened political instability, suggesting that weak institutional capacity compounds the push factors associated with natural shocks. While traditional migration models emphasize economic drivers, this study shows that political stability plays a crucial role in shaping emigration outcomes. These findings highlight the need for integrated policy responses that address both environmental risks and governance challenges in disaster prone settings.