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Diversity of greenhouse gas emission drivers across European countries since the 2008 crisis

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  • Quentin Perrier

    () (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech)

  • Céline Guivarch

    () (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech)

  • Olivier Boucher

    () (LOA - Laboratoire d’Optique Atmosphérique - UMR 8518 - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Université de Lille)

Abstract

In the context of climate change mitigation and the Paris Agreement, it is critical to monitor and understand the dynamics of greenhouse gas emissions over different regions of the world. In this study, we quantify the contributions of different drivers behind the observed emission decrease in Europe between 2009 and 2014. To this end, we build a novel dataset of deflated input-output tables for each of the 28 EU countries. This dataset enables us to conduct the first Structural Decomposition Analysis of emissions in European countries since the economic crisis. Our results show that the largest drivers of emissions have been the improvement in carbon intensity (−394 MtCO 2 e), largely offset by the economic recovery (+285 MtCO 2 e). However, other less intuitive drivers also played a significant role in the emission decline: changes in the production system (−104 MtCO 2 e), mostly driven by an increase in imports; the evolution of final demand patterns (−101 MtCO 2 e); a decrease in emissions due to household heating (−83 MtCO 2 e) and private transport (−24 MtCO 2 e), with a small offset from population growth (+39 MtCO 2 e). However, these aggregate figures mask significant variations between EU countries which we also document. This study highlights the importance of including changes in consumption patterns, trade and temperature anomalies in tracking and fostering progress towards the Paris Agreement goals.

Suggested Citation

  • Quentin Perrier & Céline Guivarch & Olivier Boucher, 2019. "Diversity of greenhouse gas emission drivers across European countries since the 2008 crisis," Post-Print halshs-02161008, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-02161008
    DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2019.1625744
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-02161008
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    Keywords

    GHG emissions; Structural decomposition analysis; European Union;

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