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Evolutionary Beliefs and Financial Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Elyès Jouini

    () (CEREMADE - CEntre de REcherches en MAthématiques de la DEcision - Université Paris-Dauphine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Clotilde Napp

    (DRM - Dauphine Recherches en Management - Université Paris-Dauphine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Yannick Viossat

    () (CEREMADE - CEntre de REcherches en MAthématiques de la DEcision - Université Paris-Dauphine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

Why do investors keep different opinions even though they learn from their own failures and successes? Why do investors keep different opinions even though they observe each other and learn from their relative failures and successes? We analyze beliefs dynamics when beliefs result from a very general learning process that favors beliefs leading to higher absolute or relative utility levels. We show that such a process converges to the Nash equilibrium in a game of strategic belief choices. The asymptotic beliefs are subjective and heterogeneous across the agents. Optimism (respectively overconfidence) as well as pessimism (respectively doubt) emerge from the learning process. Furthermore, we obtain a positive correlation between pessimism (respectively doubt) and risk tolerance. Under reasonable assumptions, beliefs exhibit a pessimistic bias and, as a consequence, the risk premium is higher than in a standard setting.

Suggested Citation

  • Elyès Jouini & Clotilde Napp & Yannick Viossat, 2012. "Evolutionary Beliefs and Financial Markets," Post-Print halshs-00778537, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00778537
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00778537
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:dyncon:v:80:y:2017:i:c:p:101-124 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Elyès Jouini & Clotilde Napp, 2016. "Live fast, die young," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 62(1), pages 265-278, June.
    3. Daniel Arce & Douglas Cook & Robert Kieschnick, 2015. "On the evolution of corporate capital structures," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 561-583, July.
    4. Yannick Viossat, 2015. "Evolutionary dynamics and dominated strategies," Economic Theory Bulletin, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 3(1), pages 91-113, April.
    5. Jouini, Elyès & Napp, Clotilde, 2015. "Gurus and belief manipulation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 11-18.
    6. Hommes, Cars & in ’t Veld, Daan, 2017. "Booms, busts and behavioural heterogeneity in stock prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 101-124.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    heterogeneous beliefs; Beliefs formation; evolutionary game theory; risk premium; pessimism;

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets
    • D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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