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Demand and productivity components of business cycles: Estimates and implications

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  • Frédéric Dufourt

    (Université Louis Pasteur - Strasbourg I)

Abstract

Standard stochastic growth models provide theoretical restrictions on output decomposition which can be used to investigate whether productivity shocks played a major role in observed business cycles. Applying these restrictions to US data leads to the following findings: i) Business cycles implied by productivity shocks are mildly correlated to overall fluctuations and help account for a few episodes of US postwar recessions. However, only 20% of US fluctuations can be explained by these shocks. ii) Most fluctuations seem instead to be due to "nominal demand" shocks, i.e. shocks which move output and prices in the same direction, but whose effects on output are ultimately transitory. iii) Canonical sticky price models in the New-Neoclassical Synthesis tradition can account for the cyclical comovements of output and prices, but canonical, frictionless, RBC models cannot.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Frédéric Dufourt, 2005. "Demand and productivity components of business cycles: Estimates and implications," Post-Print hal-05659090, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05659090
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2005.08.011
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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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