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Time-varying causality between stock prices and macroeconomic fundamentals: Connection or disconnection?

Author

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  • Vincent Fromentin

    (CEREFIGE - Centre Européen de Recherche en Economie Financière et Gestion des Entreprises - UL - Université de Lorraine)

Abstract

This study investigates the connection/disconnection between the stock market and macroeconomic fundamentals in the United States from January 1960 to December 2021. Using a recent time-varying Granger causality framework, tests revealed asymmetric bidirectionnal causality. The lead-lag relationships between stock prices and key macroeconomic indicators are more prevalent during recession phases. However, the significance and intensity of the causal relationships during the Covid crisis varied greatly; which could indicate a possible disconnection.

Suggested Citation

  • Vincent Fromentin, 2022. "Time-varying causality between stock prices and macroeconomic fundamentals: Connection or disconnection?," Post-Print hal-04206765, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04206765
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2022.103073
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    Cited by:

    1. Ahmed, Walid M.A. & Sleem, Mohamed A.E., 2023. "Short- and long-run determinants of the price behavior of US clean energy stocks: A dynamic ARDL simulations approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    2. Ferreira, Joaquim & Morais, Flávio, 2023. "Predict or to be predicted? A transfer entropy view between adaptive green markets, structural shocks and sentiment index," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).

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