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Limit order books, uninformed traders and commodity derivatives: Insights from the European carbon futures

Author

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  • Yves Rannou

    (CleRMa - Clermont Recherche Management - ESC Clermont-Ferrand - École Supérieure de Commerce (ESC) - Clermont-Ferrand - UCA [2017-2020] - Université Clermont Auvergne [2017-2020], ESC Clermont-Ferrand - École Supérieure de Commerce (ESC) - Clermont-Ferrand)

Abstract

This paper provides a suitable model for studying the strategic behavior of uninformed investors that trade commodity derivatives via limit order books. Two main testable implications are obtained after solving for the model equilibrium. The adverse selection costs of uninformed traders depend on the inflow of market orders and their risk aversion. Next, the adverse selection costs of uninformed buyers and sellers and the difference of their asset valuations determine the size of their bid-ask spread. An analysis of European carbon futures data confirms the relevance of these implications. Moreover, we detect a diagonal effect that results in a positive correlation of market orders, which is driven by adverse selection, then by order splitting strategies and by imitative strategies of uninformed traders to a lesser extent.

Suggested Citation

  • Yves Rannou, 2019. "Limit order books, uninformed traders and commodity derivatives: Insights from the European carbon futures," Post-Print hal-02311467, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02311467
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2019.07.009
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-02311467
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    Cited by:

    1. Ren, Xiaohang & Li, Yiying & Qi, Yinshu & Duan, Kun, 2022. "Asymmetric effects of decomposed oil-price shocks on the EU carbon market dynamics," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(PB).
    2. Ren, Xiaohang & Li, Yiying & yan, Cheng & Wen, Fenghua & Lu, Zudi, 2022. "The interrelationship between the carbon market and the green bonds market: Evidence from wavelet quantile-on-quantile method," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    3. Yves Rannou & Pascal Barneto & Mohamed Amine Boutabba, 2020. "Green Bond market vs. Carbon market in Europe : Two different trajectories but some complementarities," Working Papers hal-02981422, HAL.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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