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Export diversification and real exchange rate in emerging Latin America and Asia: A South–North vs. South-South decomposition

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  • Thi Anh-Dao Tran

    (LASTA - Laboratoire d'Analyse des Sociétés, Transformations et Adaptations - UNIROUEN - Université de Rouen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université, IRASEC - Institut de Recherche sur l'Asie du Sud-est Contemporaine - MEAE - Ministère de l'Europe et des Affaires étrangères - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Minh Hong Phi

    (LASTA - Laboratoire d'Analyse des Sociétés, Transformations et Adaptations - UNIROUEN - Université de Rouen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université, FTU - Foreign Trade University, Hanoi, Vietnam)

  • Diadié Diaw

    (CIAPHS - Centre Interdisciplinaire d'Analyse des Processus Humains et Sociaux [Rennes] - UR2 - Université de Rennes 2)

Abstract

The present paper examines the directional causality between export diversification and real exchange rate in the middle-income countries of Asia and Latin America over the period from 1995 to 2013. Additionally, we investigate asymmetries in the causality issue by examining the direction across trading partners.Our empirical results show that there is a two-way causality between the two variables when we look at the sample as a whole. A causal link running from the real exchange rate to export diversification is consistent with the standard literature but it is not systematic at all. The reverse causation is very appealing and challenges the standard argument on exchange rate determination. When the causality issue is investigated by treating export markets differently, our findings at the aggregate level are confirmed in exports destined for the advanced countries. The analysis for ‘South-South’ trade only shows a unidirectional link from the real exchange rate to changes in export diversification. The same tests performed at the individual countries level reveal a heterogeneous causality across trading partners.
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Suggested Citation

  • Thi Anh-Dao Tran & Minh Hong Phi & Diadié Diaw, 2017. "Export diversification and real exchange rate in emerging Latin America and Asia: A South–North vs. South-South decomposition," Post-Print hal-02285441, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02285441
    DOI: 10.1080/09638199.2017.1286680
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    Cited by:

    1. Ho, Sy-Hoa & OUEGHLISSI, Rim & EL FERKTAJI, Riadh, 2019. "The dynamic causality between ESG and economic growth: Evidence from panel causality analysis," MPRA Paper 95390, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Mbondo, Georges Dieudonné & Bouwawe, Duclo, 2023. "Transformation digitale et transformation structurelle dans les économies d’Afrique Sub-Saharienne (ASS) : les effets variés des technologies de l’information et de la communication (TIC) [Digital ," MPRA Paper 117541, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Tran, Thi Anh-Dao & Phi, Minh Hong & Thai, Long, 2020. "Global value chains and the missing link between exchange rates and export diversification," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 194-205.
    4. Thi Anh-Dao Tran & Minh Hong Phi & Long Thai, 2020. "Global value chains and the missing link between exchange rates and export diversification," Post-Print halshs-02972341, HAL.
    5. Mbondo, Georges Dieudonné & Bouwawe, Duclo & Awoutcha Tchieuzing, Romuald Fernand, 2023. "Le capital humain est-il important pour la diversification des exportations ? : L’expérience des économies d’Afrique Sub-Saharienne(ASS) [Does human capital matter for export diversification? The e," MPRA Paper 117499, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Wenni Lei & Yuwei Luo, 2022. "Institutions Rule in Export Diversity," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-14, September.
    7. Tran, Dung Viet & Ho, Sy-Hoa, 2019. "Does diversification affect the quality of loan portfolio?Panel Granger-causality evidence from US banks," MPRA Paper 98186, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Lukau Matezo Espoir, 2020. "Determinant of export diversification:An empirical analysis in the case of SADC countries," International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147-4478), Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 9(7), pages 130-144, December.

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