IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-01650533.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Liquidity, information, strategic trading in an electronic order book: New insights from the European carbon markets

Author

Listed:
  • Yves Rannou

    (CleRMa - Clermont Recherche Management - ESC Clermont-Ferrand - École Supérieure de Commerce (ESC) - Clermont-Ferrand - UCA [2017-2020] - Université Clermont Auvergne [2017-2020])

Abstract

The electronic limit order book (LOB hereafter) has rapidly become the primary way of trading European carbon assets over the 4 years of the EU ETS programme (2008–2012). In this first attempt of examining the informational content of an electronic order book, we evidence that order flow imbalances have a moderate capacity to predict short term price changes. However, we find that both LOB slope and immediacy costs help to forecast quote improvements and volatility in the next 30min. Further, we explain why informed trading is highly influential and show that it consists in mixing order splitting strategies and posting fleeting orders once the asymmetric information is reduced (Rosu, 2009). Overall, the consolidated status of the order book mirrors a high level of market uncertainty and a low degree of informational efficiency. In this way, strategic trading can in itself explain some of order book properties, independently of the degree of traders’ sophistication and market competition.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Yves Rannou, 2017. "Liquidity, information, strategic trading in an electronic order book: New insights from the European carbon markets," Post-Print hal-01650533, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01650533
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2014.09.008
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. PASCUAL, Roberto & VEREDAS, David, 2006. "Does the open limit order book matter in explaining long run volatility ?," CORE Discussion Papers 2006110, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    2. Foucault, Thierry, 1999. "Order flow composition and trading costs in a dynamic limit order market1," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 99-134, May.
    3. Al-Suhaibani, Mohammad & Kryzanowski, Lawrence, 2000. "An exploratory analysis of the order book, and order flow and execution on the Saudi stock market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 1323-1357, August.
    4. Thierry Foucault & Sophie Moinas & Erik Theissen, 2007. "Does Anonymity Matter in Electronic Limit Order Markets?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(5), pages 1707-1747, 2007 28.
    5. Glosten, Lawrence R, 1994. "Is the Electronic Open Limit Order Book Inevitable?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1127-1161, September.
    6. Madhavan, Ananth, 1992. "Trading Mechanisms in Securities Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 607-641, June.
    7. Medina, Vicente & Pardo, Ángel & Pascual, Roberto, 2014. "The timeline of trading frictions in the European carbon market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 378-394.
    8. Kalay, Avner & Sade, Orly & Wohl, Avi, 2004. "Measuring stock illiquidity: An investigation of the demand and supply schedules at the TASE," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 461-486, December.
    9. Lee, Charles M C & Ready, Mark J, 1991. "Inferring Trade Direction from Intraday Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 733-746, June.
    10. Roberto Pascual & David Veredas, 2010. "Does the Open Limit Order Book Matter in Explaining Informational Volatility?," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 8(1), pages 57-87, Winter.
    11. Rama Cont & Arseniy Kukanov & Sasha Stoikov, 2013. "The Price Impact of Order Book Events," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 12(1), pages 47-88, December.
    12. Mizrach, Bruce & Otsubo, Yoichi, 2014. "The market microstructure of the European climate exchange," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 107-116.
    13. Charles Cao & Oliver Hansch & Xiaoxin Wang, 2009. "The information content of an open limit‐order book," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1), pages 16-41, January.
    14. Naes, Randi & Skjeltorp, Johannes A., 2006. "Order book characteristics and the volume-volatility relation: Empirical evidence from a limit order market," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 408-432, November.
    15. Conrad, Christian & Rittler, Daniel & Rotfuß, Waldemar, 2012. "Modeling and explaining the dynamics of European Union Allowance prices at high-frequency," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 316-326.
    16. Gibbons, Michael R & Ross, Stephen A & Shanken, Jay, 1989. "A Test of the Efficiency of a Given Portfolio," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(5), pages 1121-1152, September.
    17. Ranaldo, Angelo, 2004. "Order aggressiveness in limit order book markets," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 53-74, January.
    18. Julien Chevallier & Benoît Sévi, 2011. "On the realized volatility of the ECX CO 2 emissions 2008 futures contract: distribution, dynamics and forecasting," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 1-29, February.
    19. Easley, David & O'Hara, Maureen, 1992. "Time and the Process of Security Price Adjustment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 576-605, June.
    20. Biais, Bruno & Hillion, Pierre & Spatt, Chester, 1995. "An Empirical Analysis of the Limit Order Book and the Order Flow in the Paris Bourse," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1655-1689, December.
    21. repec:dau:papers:123456789/4598 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Alexandre Kossoy & Pierre Guigon, "undated". "State and Trends of the Carbon Market 2012," World Bank Publications - Reports 13336, The World Bank Group.
    23. Palao, Fernando & Pardo, Ángel, 2014. "What makes carbon traders cluster their orders?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 158-165.
    24. Ioanid Rosu, 2009. "A Dynamic Model of the Limit Order Book," Post-Print hal-00515873, HAL.
    25. Goettler, Ronald L. & Parlour, Christine A. & Rajan, Uday, 2009. "Informed traders and limit order markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 67-87, July.
    26. Chordia, Tarun & Roll, Richard & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2008. "Liquidity and market efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 249-268, February.
    27. Vicente Medina & Angel Pardo & Roberto Pascual, 2013. "Carbon Credits: Who is the Leader of the Pack?," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 3(3), pages 210-220.
    28. Kalaitzoglou, Iordanis & Ibrahim, Boulis M., 2013. "Does order flow in the European Carbon Futures Market reveal information?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 604-635.
    29. Iordanis Kalaitzoglou & Boulis Maher Ibrahim, 2013. "Does Order Flow in The European Carbon Allowances Market Reveal Information?," Post-Print hal-00859245, HAL.
    30. Bredin, Don & Hyde, Stuart & Muckley, Cal, 2014. "A microstructure analysis of the carbon finance market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 222-234.
    31. Crossland, Jarrod & Li, Bin & Roca, Eduardo, 2013. "Is the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) informationally efficient? Evidence from momentum-based trading strategies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 10-23.
    32. Ioanid Rosu, 2009. "A Dynamic Model of the Limit Order Book," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(11), pages 4601-4641, November.
    33. Karsten Neuhoff & Anne Schopp & Rodney Boyd & Kateryna Stelmakh & Alexander Vasa, 2012. "Banking of Surplus Emissions Allowances: Does the Volume Matter?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1196, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    34. Goyenko, Ruslan Y. & Holden, Craig W. & Trzcinka, Charles A., 2009. "Do liquidity measures measure liquidity?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 153-181, May.
    35. repec:wbk:wboper:13335 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhou, Xinxing & Gao, Yan & Wang, Ping & Zhu, Bangzhu & Wu, Zhanchi, 2022. "Does herding behavior exist in China's carbon markets?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 308(C).
    2. Wang, Kai-Hua & Liu, Lu & Zhong, Yifan & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and carbon emission trading market: A China's perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    3. Będowska-Sójka, Barbara, 2020. "Do aggressive orders affect liquidity? An evidence from an emerging market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    4. Ben Omrane, Walid & Tao, Yusi & Welch, Robert, 2017. "Scheduled macro-news effects on a Euro/US dollar limit order book around the 2008 financial crisis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 9-30.
    5. Chai, Shanglei & Yang, Xiaoli & Zhang, Zhen & Abedin, Mohammad Zoynul & Lucey, Brian, 2022. "Regional imbalances of market efficiency in China’s pilot emission trading schemes (ETS): A multifractal perspective," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    6. Massimiliano Caporin & Fulvio Fontini & Samuele Segato, 2021. "Has the EU-ETS Financed the Energy Transition of the Italian Power System?," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-15, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ibrahim, Boulis Maher & Kalaitzoglou, Iordanis Angelos, 2016. "Why do carbon prices and price volatility change?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 76-94.
    2. Menkhoff, Lukas & Osler, Carol L. & Schmeling, Maik, 2010. "Limit-order submission strategies under asymmetric information," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2665-2677, November.
    3. Mazza, Paolo, 2015. "Price dynamics and market liquidity: An intraday event study on Euronext," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 139-153.
    4. Roberto Pascual & David Veredas, 2010. "Does the Open Limit Order Book Matter in Explaining Informational Volatility?," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 8(1), pages 57-87, Winter.
    5. Medina, Vicente & Pardo, Ángel & Pascual, Roberto, 2014. "The timeline of trading frictions in the European carbon market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 378-394.
    6. Pascual, Roberto & Pascual-Fuster, Bartolomé, 2014. "The relative contribution of ask and bid quotes to price discovery," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 129-150.
    7. Duong, Huu Nhan & Kalev, Petko S., 2013. "Anonymity and order submissions," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 101-118.
    8. Rannou, Yves, 2019. "Limit order books, uninformed traders and commodity derivatives: Insights from the European carbon futures," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 387-410.
    9. Abad, David & Pascual, Roberto, 2015. "The friction-free weighted price contribution," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 226-239.
    10. Vayanos, Dimitri & Wang, Jiang, 2013. "Market Liquidity—Theory and Empirical Evidence ," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1289-1361, Elsevier.
    11. Stenfors, Alexis & Susai, Masayuki, 2019. "Liquidity withdrawal in the FX spot market: A cross-country study using high-frequency data," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 36-57.
    12. Georges Dionne & Xiaozhou Zhou, 2020. "The dynamics of ex-ante weighted spread: an empirical analysis," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 593-617, April.
    13. Ingrid Lo & Stephen Sapp, 2011. "Belief Dispersion and Order Submission Strategies in the Foreign Exchange Market," Staff Working Papers 11-8, Bank of Canada.
    14. Alexis Stenfors & Masayuki Susai, 2017. "Algorithmic Trading Behaviour and High-Frequency Liquidity Withdrawal in the FX Spot Market," Working Papers in Economics & Finance 2017-04, University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth Business School, Economics and Finance Subject Group.
    15. Lo, Ingrid & Sapp, Stephen G., 2010. "Order aggressiveness and quantity: How are they determined in a limit order market?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 213-237, July.
    16. Jain, Pawan & Jiang, Christine, 2014. "Predicting future price volatility: Empirical evidence from an emerging limit order market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 72-93.
    17. Danny Lo, 2015. "Essays in Market Microstructure and Investor Trading," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 4-2015.
    18. Cenesizoglu, Tolga & Dionne, Georges & Zhou, Xiaozhou, 2022. "Asymmetric effects of the limit order book on price dynamics," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 77-98.
    19. Murphy Jun Jie Lee, 2013. "The Microstructure of Trading Processes on the Singapore Exchange," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 2-2013.
    20. Danny Lo, 2015. "Essays in Market Microstructure and Investor Trading," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 22, July-Dece.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G19 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Other
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01650533. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.