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Copulas and time series with long-ranged dependencies

Author

Listed:
  • Rémy Chicheportiche

    (MAS - Mathématiques Appliquées aux Systèmes - EA 4037 - Ecole Centrale Paris, FiQuant - Chaire de finance quantitative - MICS - Mathématiques et Informatique pour la Complexité et les Systèmes - CentraleSupélec)

  • Anirban Chakraborti

    (FiQuant - Chaire de finance quantitative - MICS - Mathématiques et Informatique pour la Complexité et les Systèmes - CentraleSupélec, MAS - Mathématiques Appliquées aux Systèmes - EA 4037 - Ecole Centrale Paris)

Abstract

We review ideas on temporal dependencies and recurrences in discrete time series from several areas of natural and social sciences. We revisit existing studies and redefine the relevant observables in the language of copulas (joint laws of the ranks). We propose that copulas provide an appropriate mathematical framework to study nonlinear time dependencies and related concepts--like aftershocks, Omori law, recurrences, and waiting times. We also critically argue, using this global approach, that previous phenomenological attempts involving only a long-ranged autocorrelation function lacked complexity in that they were essentially monoscale.

Suggested Citation

  • Rémy Chicheportiche & Anirban Chakraborti, 2014. "Copulas and time series with long-ranged dependencies," Post-Print hal-00977135, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00977135
    DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevE.89.042117
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Li, Wei-Zhen & Zhai, Jin-Rui & Jiang, Zhi-Qiang & Wang, Gang-Jin & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2022. "Predicting tail events in a RIA-EVT-Copula framework," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 600(C).
    2. Zhi-Qiang Jiang & Gang-Jin Wang & Askery Canabarro & Boris Podobnik & Chi Xie & H. Eugene Stanley & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2018. "Short term prediction of extreme returns based on the recurrence interval analysis," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(3), pages 353-370, March.
    3. Chicheportiche, Rémy & Chakraborti, Anirban, 2017. "A model-free characterization of recurrences in stationary time series," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 474(C), pages 312-318.
    4. Corral, Álvaro, 2015. "Scaling in the timing of extreme events," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 99-112.
    5. Karain, Wael I., 2019. "Investigating large-amplitude protein loop motions as extreme events using recurrence interval analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 520(C), pages 1-10.
    6. Tomlinson, Matthew F. & Greenwood, David & Mucha-Kruczyński, Marcin, 2024. "2T-POT Hawkes model for left- and right-tail conditional quantile forecasts of financial log returns: Out-of-sample comparison of conditional EVT models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 324-347.

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