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A note on Hubbert's hypotheses and techniques

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  • Pierre-Noël Giraud

    (CERNA i3 - Centre d'économie industrielle i3 - Mines Paris - PSL (École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris) - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - I3 - Institut interdisciplinaire de l’innovation - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

Many have attempted to forecast the date of the production peak and the volume of the ultimate reserves of a mineral commodity, using techniques derived from Hubbert's thesis. This note aims at exploring the scientific foundations and therefore the scope of validity of these forecasting techniques. Looking at the basic assumptions of Hubbert's thesis, it concludes that these techniques should not be used to forecast neither the peak (or plateau) of the annual production rate, nor the ultimate reserves of any mineral, unless given exceptional conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Pierre-Noël Giraud, 2011. "A note on Hubbert's hypotheses and techniques," Post-Print hal-00582825, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00582825
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://minesparis-psl.hal.science/hal-00582825v2
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    File URL: https://minesparis-psl.hal.science/hal-00582825v2/document
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    Cited by:

    1. Delannoy, Louis & Longaretti, Pierre-Yves & Murphy, David J. & Prados, Emmanuel, 2021. "Peak oil and the low-carbon energy transition: A net-energy perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).

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