IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/ciredw/hal-01275593.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Two historical changes in the narrative of energy forecasts

Author

Listed:
  • Minh Ha-Duong

    (CIRED - centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CleanED - Clean Energy and Sustainable Development Lab - USTH - University of Science and Technology of Hanoi)

  • Franck Nadaud

    (CIRED - centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Martin Jegard

    (CIRED - centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

A collection of 417 energy scenarios was assembled and harmonized to compare what they said about nuclear, fossil and renewable energy thirty years from their publication. Based on data analysis, we divide the recent history of the energy forecasting in three periods. The first is defined by a decline in nuclear optimism, approximately until 1990. The second by a stability of forecasts, approximately until 2005. The third by a rise in the forecasted share of renewable energy sources. We also find that forecasts tend to cohere, that is they have a low dispersion within periods compared to the change across periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Minh Ha-Duong & Franck Nadaud & Martin Jegard, 2016. "Two historical changes in the narrative of energy forecasts," CIRED Working Papers hal-01275593, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:ciredw:hal-01275593
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-01275593
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.science/hal-01275593/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jean Charles Hourcade & Franck Nadaud, 2010. "Thirty-five years of long-run energy forecasting : lessons for climate change policy," Post-Print halshs-00521173, HAL.
    2. Bryant, James W. & Thomas, Stephen D., 1980. "A modelling framework for comparative testing of energy forecasts," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 5(5), pages 309-320, November.
    3. Hourcade, Jean-Charles & Nadaud, Franck, 2010. "Thirty-five years of long-run energy forecasting : lessons for climate change policy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5298, The World Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Michel Damian, 2012. "Repenser l'économie du changement climatique," Post-Print halshs-00709929, HAL.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    scenario; periodization; energy;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:ciredw:hal-01275593. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.