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Les déterminants économiques de la performance olympique : prévision des médailles qui seront gagnées aux Jeux de Pékin

Author

Listed:
  • Wladimir Andreff

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Madeleine Andreff
  • Sandrine Poupaux

Abstract

The analysis of economic determinants of Olympic performance was for a long time a macroeconomics of the cold war in which the number of medals won by a nation was explained by its endowment with economic and human resources, then its political regime and a host country effect. We adopt a post-cold war view of the Games which provides an additional explanation closer to the Olympic ideals since it takes into account individual athlete performances, culture, and sporting disciplines. Various econometric estimations that translate this renewed view are achieved under the constraint of limited available data, over 1976-2004. In a first specification inspired from the macroeconomic approach by Bernard and Busse (2004), with a more detailed country classification, GDP per capita, population, the political regime and the host country effect determine the number of medals won. A second specification adds a variable that captures cultural differences across various regions in the world, which improves the previous estimation. A third estimation relies on a new individual data base, introduces an economic classification of sports as a dependent variable and enables estimating, for an athlete from a given country, his/her chances of participating to an Olympic final and of winning a medal. Finally, regarding the prediction of the would-be medal wins in Peking 2008, an inertial variable is introduced in the macroeconomic model in order to capture an 'Olympic worship' in those nations which are used to win a number of medals, a variable that differentiates them from other participating nations. Another prevision is based on individual data without any inertia.

Suggested Citation

  • Wladimir Andreff & Madeleine Andreff & Sandrine Poupaux, 2008. "Les déterminants économiques de la performance olympique : prévision des médailles qui seront gagnées aux Jeux de Pékin," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00293906, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00293906
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Wladimir Andreff & Madeleine Andreff, 2015. "Economic prediction of sport performances from the Beijing Olympics to the 2010 FIFA World Cup in South Africa: the notion of surprising sporting outcomes," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01244495, HAL.
    2. Wladimir Andreff, 2013. "Economic development as major determinant of Olympic medal wins: predicting performances of Russian and Chinese teams at Sochi Games," Post-Print halshs-00971788, HAL.
    3. Wladimir Andreff, 2012. "Is Hosting the Games Enough to Win? A predictive economic model of medal wins at 2014 Winter Olympics," Post-Print halshs-00794057, HAL.
    4. Plácido Rodríguez & Stefan Késenne & Ruud Koning (ed.), 2015. "The Economics of Competitive Sports," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 15770.
    5. Schlembach, Christoph & Schmidt, Sascha L. & Schreyer, Dominik & Wunderlich, Linus, 2022. "Forecasting the Olympic medal distribution – A socioeconomic machine learning model," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    6. Wladimir Andreff & Madeleine Andreff, 2015. "Economic prediction of sport performances from the Beijing Olympics to the 2010 FIFA World Cup in South Africa: the notion of surprising sporting outcomes," Post-Print halshs-01244495, HAL.

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