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Prévision de court terme de la croissance du PIB français à l’aide de modèles à facteurs dynamiques

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  • Marie Bessec

    (LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris-Dauphine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Catherine Doz

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

In recent years, factor models have received increasing interest from central banks and international organizations to forecast macroeconomic variables. We examine the performance of these models in forecasting the French GDP growth rate over short horizons. The factors are extracted from a large data set including surveys balances, real, financial and international variables. A pseudo real time evaluation over the last decade exhibits a gain relative to the usual benchmarks. However, forecasts remain inaccurate before the beginning of the quarter. We also show that the use of international and financial variables can improve forecasts at the longest horizons.

Suggested Citation

  • Marie Bessec & Catherine Doz, 2012. "Prévision de court terme de la croissance du PIB français à l’aide de modèles à facteurs dynamiques," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01515627, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:hal-01515627
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01515627
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    Keywords

    Prévision du PIB; modèles à facteurs;

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