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Monitoreo económico de alta resolución en El Salvador: Estimación oportuna del crecimiento del PIB y su desagregación espacial

Author

Listed:
  • José Morales-Arilla

    (Escuela de Gobierno y Transformación Pública, Tecnológico de Monterrey)

  • Rodrigo Sánchez Gavito Portilla

    (Laboratorio de Desarrollo Regional, Escuela de Gobierno y Transformación Pública, Tecnológico de Monterrey)

  • Hermilo Cortés

    (Laboratorio de Desarrollo Regional, Escuela de Gobierno y Transformación Pública, Tecnológico de Monterrey)

  • Ana Gabriela Ibarra

Abstract

Este working paper desarrolla este sistema de monitoreo económico de alta resolución para El Salvador que combina datos administrativos, macroeconómicos y geoespaciales con modelos econométricos y de aprendizaje de máquina. La propuesta permite estimar el crecimiento del PIB 45 días después del cierre de cada trimestre y generar una desagregación departamental coherente con las cuentas nacionales, fortaleciendo el análisis regional y la toma oportuna de decisiones públicas con base en evidencia.

Suggested Citation

  • José Morales-Arilla & Rodrigo Sánchez Gavito Portilla & Hermilo Cortés & Ana Gabriela Ibarra, 2026. "Monitoreo económico de alta resolución en El Salvador: Estimación oportuna del crecimiento del PIB y su desagregación espacial," Working Paper Series of the School of Government and Public Transformation 35, School of Governement and Public Transformation.
    • Handle: RePEc:gnt:wpaper:35
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://egobiernoytp.tec.mx/sites/default/files/2026-07/monitoreo_economico_alta_resolucion_salvador.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2026
    Download Restriction: no
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)

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