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Does the business cycle respond to food prices

Author

Listed:
  • Marcelo Santos

    (University of Coimbra, CeBER and Faculty of Economics)

  • Tiago Neves Sequeira

    (University of Coimbra, CeBER and Faculty of Economics)

Abstract

The impact of food prices on food security and short-term economic cycles has recently come into focus due to global supply shortages caused by the Black Sea blockade and the war in Ukraine. We compiled a comprehensive database of prices and output to estimate the short-term effects of food prices on the business cycle both before and during the war. Our findings indicate that price increases do not necessarily lead to economic downturns, even in the face of supply shocks—challenging conventional wisdom.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcelo Santos & Tiago Neves Sequeira, 2025. "Does the business cycle respond to food prices," CeBER Working Papers 2025-02, Centre for Business and Economics Research (CeBER), University of Coimbra.
    • Handle: RePEc:gmf:papers:2025-02
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business Cycle; GDP per capita; War on Ukraine; Food Prices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L2 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
    • M2 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Economics
    • M5 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Personnel Economics
    • O32 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Management of Technological Innovation and R&D
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • O34 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Intellectual Property and Intellectual Capital

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