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Spatial convergence in aging: The role of migration

Author

Listed:
  • Roberto Basile

    (Sapienza Università di Roma – Dipartimento di Studi Giuridici ed Economici)

  • Cinzia Castagnaro

    (Istituto Nazionale di Statistica (ISTAT))

  • Francesca Centofanti

    (Università di Roma “Tor Vergataâ€)

  • Francesca Licari

    (Istituto Nazionale di Statistica (ISTAT))

Abstract

Population aging challenges welfare systems, particularly in rapidly aging countries such as Italy. Using municipality-level data (2002–2023), this paper examines aging dynamics through the Potential Support Ratio (PSR), the ratio of working-age (15–64) to old-age (65+) population. We apply a beta regression framework to analyze spatial convergence and a two-step decomposition to disentangle the contributions of cohort turnover, mortality, and migration. Findings show strong convergence in aging, with international migration partly mitigating demographic imbalance, while internal migration exacerbates it, increasing fragility in peripheral areas. Policy implications highlight the need to strengthen welfare sustainability and regional equity.

Suggested Citation

  • Roberto Basile & Cinzia Castagnaro & Francesca Centofanti & Francesca Licari, "undated". "Spatial convergence in aging: The role of migration," Public Finance Research Papers 77, Istituto di Economia e Finanza, DSGE, Sapienza University of Rome.
    • Handle: RePEc:gfe:pfrp00:00077
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    File URL: https://www.dsge.uniroma1.it/sites/default/files/pubblicazioni/economia/e-pfrp77.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Román Mínguez & Roberto Basile & María Durbán, 2020. "An alternative semiparametric model for spatial panel data," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 29(4), pages 669-708, December.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models

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