Utility Functions For Central Bankers: The Not So Drastic Quadratic
Following Blinders (1997) suggestion, we examine the implications for the optimal interest rate rule which follows from relaxing the assumption that the policymakers loss function is quadratic. We investigate deviations from quadratics for both symmetric and asymmetric preferences for a single target and find that (i) other characterizations of risk aversion than implied by the quadratic only affect dead-weight losses, unless there is multiplicative uncertainty; (ii) asymmetries affect the optimal rule under both additive and multiplicative uncertainty but result in interest rate paths observationally similar, and in some cases equivalent to those implied by a shifted quadratic; (iii) the use of asymmetric loss functions leads to important insights on the issue of goal independence and monetary policy delegation: (iv) non-quadratic preferences per se, are neither sufficient nor necessary to generate the Brainard conservatism principle and thus do not offer much added value when analyzing policy issues of caution and gradualism. Our results suggest that in the context of monetary policymaking the convenient assumption of quadratic losses may not be that drastic after all.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Engle, R. & Hendry, D., 1990.
"Testing Super Exogeneity And Invariance In Regression Models,"
Economics Series Working Papers
99100, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Engle, Robert F. & Hendry, David F., 1993. "Testing superexogeneity and invariance in regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1-2), pages 119-139, March.
- Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, December.
- Deaton, Angus, 1992. "Understanding Consumption," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288244, December.
- Birchenhall, C R, et al, 1989. "A Seasonal Model of Consumption," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(397), pages 837-843, September.
- Francis X. Diebold, 1989.
"Forecast combination and encompassing: reconciling two divergent literatures,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
80, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Diebold, Francis X., 1989. "Forecast combination and encompassing: Reconciling two divergent literatures," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 589-592.
- Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
- Davidson, James E H, et al, 1978. "Econometric Modelling of the Aggregate Time-Series Relationship between Consumers' Expenditure and Income in the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(352), pages 661-692, December.
- Neil R. Ericsson & John S. Irons, 1995. "The Lucas critique in practice: theory without measurement," International Finance Discussion Papers 506, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Hendry, David F, 1994. "HUS Revisited," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(2), pages 86-106, Summer.
- Favero, C. & Hendry, D., 1990. "Testing The Lucas Critique: A Review," Economics Series Working Papers 99101, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Miller, Preston J, 1978. "Forecasting with Econometric Methods: A Comment," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(4), pages 579-584, October.
- Carruth, Alan & Henley, Andrew, 1990. "Can Existing Consumption Functions Forecast Consumer Spending in the Late 1980's?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 211-222, May.
- Granger, Clive W. J. & Deutsch, Melinda, 1992.
"Comments on the evaluation of policy models,"
Journal of Policy Modeling,
Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 497-516, August.
- Andrew C Harvey & Andrew Scott, 1994.
"Seasonality in Dynamic Regression Models,"
CEP Discussion Papers
dp0184, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Doornik, Jurgen A & Hendry, David F & Nielsen, Bent, 1998.
" Inference in Cointegrating Models: UK M1 Revisited,"
Journal of Economic Surveys,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 533-572, December.
- Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry & Bent Nielsen, 1998. "Inference in Cointegrating Models: UK M1 Revisited," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 533-572, December.
- Hansen, Bruce E., 1992.
"Testing for parameter instability in linear models,"
Journal of Policy Modeling,
Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 517-533, August.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "STABTEST: RATS procedure to perform Hansen's stability test for OLS," Statistical Software Components RTS00199, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Grayham E. Mizon & David F. Hendry, 1998. "Exogeneity, causality, and co-breaking in economic policy analysis of a small econometric model of money in the UK," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 267-294.
- Hendry, David F & Doornik, Jurgen A, 1997. "The Implications for Econometric Modelling of Forecast Failure," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 44(4), pages 437-461, September.
- Godfrey, Leslie G, 1978. "Testing for Higher Order Serial Correlation in Regression Equations When the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1303-1310, November.
- David F. Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 1994. "Can Econometrics Improve Economic Forecasting?," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 130(III), pages 267-298, September.
- Preston J. Miller, 1978. "Forecasting with econometric methods: a comment," Working Papers 104, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Banerjee, Anindya & Dolado, Juan J. & Galbraith, John W. & Hendry, David, 1993. "Co-integration, Error Correction, and the Econometric Analysis of Non-Stationary Data," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288107, December.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Muellbauer, John, 1994. "The Assessment: Consumer Expenditure," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(2), pages 1-41, Summer.
- Coulson, N.E. & Robins, R.P., 1989. "Forecast Combination In A Dynamic Setting," Papers 8-88-4, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
- Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 1997. "An empirical study of seasonal unit roots in forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 341-355, September.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fmg:fmgdps:dp308. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (The FMG Administration)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.