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Credit, Bankruptcy, and Aggregate Fluctuations

Author

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  • Makoto Nakajima
  • José-Víctor Ríos-Rull

Abstract

We document the cyclical properties of unsecured consumer credit (procyclical and volatile) and of consumer bankruptcies (countercyclical and very volatile). Using a growth model with household heterogeneity in earnings and assets with access to unsecured credit (because of bankruptcy costs) and aggregate shocks, we show that the cyclical behavior of household earnings growth accounts for these properties, albeit not for the large volatility of credit. We ?nd that tilting household consumption towards goods that can be purchased on credit and a slight countercyclicality in the terms of access to credit match the sizes of credit and bankruptcy volatilities. We also ?nd that when the right to ?le for bankruptcy does not exist unsecured credit is countercyclical.

Suggested Citation

  • Makoto Nakajima & José-Víctor Ríos-Rull, 2019. "Credit, Bankruptcy, and Aggregate Fluctuations," Working Papers 19-48, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedpwp:19-48
    DOI: 10.21799/frbp.wp.2019.48
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    Cited by:

    1. Massimiliano Affinito & Raffaele Santioni & Luca Tomassetti, 2025. "Inside Household Debt: Disentangling Mortgages and Consumer Credit, and Household and Bank Factors. Evidence from Italy," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 11(2), pages 773-814, July.
    2. Keiichiro KOBAYASHI, 2016. "Persistent Demand Shortage Due to Household Debt," Discussion papers 16012, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    3. Madeira, Carlos, 2019. "Measuring the covariance risk of consumer debt portfolios," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 21-38.
    4. Madeira, Carlos, 2018. "Explaining the cyclical volatility of consumer debt risk using a heterogeneous agents model: The case of Chile," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 209-220.
    5. Jang, Youngsoo & Lee, Soyoung, 2019. "A Generalized Endogenous Grid Method for Models with the Option to Default," MPRA Paper 95721, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Soyoung Lee, 2023. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Debt Relief Policies During Recessions," Staff Working Papers 23-48, Bank of Canada.
    7. Samir Amine & Wilner Predelus, 2019. "The Persistence of the 2008-2009 Recession and Insolvency Filings in Canada," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(1), pages 84-93.
    8. Alexandros P. Bechlioulis & Sophocles N. Brissimis, 2021. "Are household consumption decisions affected by past due unsecured debt? Theory and evidence," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 3040-3053, April.
    9. Carlos Madeira, 2016. "Explaining the Cyclical Volatility of Consumer Debt Risk," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 772, Central Bank of Chile.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • K35 - Law and Economics - - Other Substantive Areas of Law - - - Personal Bankruptcy Law

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