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Securitization and mortgage default

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  • Ronel Elul

Abstract

This version is superseded by WP 15-15. The academic literature, the popular press, and policymakers have all debated securitization's contribution to the poor performance of mortgages originated in the run-up to the recent crisis. Theoretical arguments have been advanced on both sides, but the lack of suitable data has made it difficult to assess them empirically. The author examines this issue by using a loan-level data set from LPS Analytics, covering approximately two-thirds of the mortgages originated in 2005 and 2006, and including both securitized and nonsecuritized loans. ; The author finds evidence that privately securitized loans do indeed perform worse than observably similar, nonsecuritized loans. Moreover, this effect is strongest in prime mortgage markets, which have not been studied in the previous literature. For example, a typical prime loan becomes delinquent at a 20 percent higher rate if it is privately securitized, ceteris paribus. This is consistent with the existence of adverse selection; that is, that lenders used information not available to investors to securitize loans that were riskier than they otherwise appeared. By contrast, for subprime mortgages, the impact of private securitization is concentrated in low or no-documentation loans; this latter result is consistent with previous work such as Keys et al. (2009).

Suggested Citation

  • Ronel Elul, 2011. "Securitization and mortgage default," Working Papers 09-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedpwp:09-21
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Andreas Fuster & James Vickery, 2015. "Securitization and the Fixed-Rate Mortgage," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(1), pages 176-211.
    2. Adelino, Manuel & Scott Frame, W. & Gerardi, Kristopher, 2017. "The effect of large investors on asset quality: Evidence from subprime mortgage securities," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 34-51.
    3. Niedermayer, Andreas & Shneyerov, Artyom & Xu, Pia, 2015. "Foreclosure Auctions," Discussion Paper Series of SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems 522, Free University of Berlin, Humboldt University of Berlin, University of Bonn, University of Mannheim, University of Munich.
    4. Josephson, Jens & Shapiro, Joel, 2020. "Credit ratings and structured finance," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    5. Dow, James & Han, Jungsuk, 2015. "Contractual incompleteness, limited liability and asset price bubbles," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(2), pages 383-409.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mortgage-backed securities; Default (Finance);

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