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Why is the Default Rate So Low? How Economic Conditions and Public Policies Have Shaped Mortgage and Auto Delinquencies During the COVID-19 Pandemic

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Abstract

Delinquencies and defaults on household debt typically closely follow the business cycle. As economic conditions deteriorate, falling employment and incomes put a strain on family finances, leading to a rise in missed debt payments and defaults. Yet, against the backdrop of a historic rise in unemployment associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, delinquencies have fallen. This FEDS Note documents trends in delinquency on mortgages and auto loans during the COVID-19 pandemic, and unpacks how changes in economic conditions and public policies have been associated with borrowers’ debt repayment behavior.

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  • Lisa J. Dettling & Lauren Lambie-Hanson, 2021. "Why is the Default Rate So Low? How Economic Conditions and Public Policies Have Shaped Mortgage and Auto Delinquencies During the COVID-19 Pandemic," FEDS Notes 2021-03-04-2, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfn:2021-03-04-2
    DOI: 10.17016/2380-7172.2854
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    File URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/why-is-the-default-rate-so-low-20210304.htm
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    Cited by:

    1. Stephen Malpezzi, 2023. "Housing affordability and responses during times of stress: A preliminary look during the COVID‐19 pandemic," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 41(1), pages 9-40, January.
    2. Kristopher Gerardi & Lauren Lambie-Hanson & Paul S. Willen, 2022. "Lessons Learned from Mortgage Borrower Policies and Outcomes during the COVID-19 Pandemic," Policy Hub, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 2022(9), July.
    3. repec:fip:a00001:92867 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Kristopher Gerardi & Lauren Lambie-Hanson & Paul S. Willen, 2021. "Racial Differences in Mortgage Refinancing, Distress, and Housing Wealth Accumulation during COVID-19," Consumer Finance Institute discussion papers 21-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    5. Duncan, Elizabeth & Horvath, Akos & Iercosan, Diana & Loudis, Bert & Maddrey, Alice & Martinez, Francis & Mooney, Timothy & Ranish, Ben & Wang, Ke & Warusawitharana, Missaka & Wix, Carlo, 2022. "COVID-19 as a stress test: Assessing the bank regulatory framework," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    6. Stephen Malpezzi, 2021. "Housing “Affordability” and Responses During Times of Stress: A Brief Global Review," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2021_011, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    7. repec:fip:a00001:94154 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Larry D. Wall, 2021. "So Far, So Good: Government Insurance of Financial Sector Tail Risk," Policy Hub, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 2021(13), November.

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