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The Crowding-In Effects of Local Government Debt in China

Author

Listed:
  • Xiaoming Li
  • Zheng Liu
  • Yuchao Peng
  • Zhiwei Xu

Abstract

We study how changes in the composition of Chinese local government debt influenced bank risk taking, credit allocation, and local productivity. Using confidential loan-level data and a difference-in-difference identification approach, we show that a debt-to-bond swap program for local governments implemented in 2015 significantly increased bank risk taking through a risk-weighting channel under Basel III capital regulations. The debt swap program converted bank holdings of municipal corporate debt to local government bonds, reducing banks’ risk-weighted assets. Banks responded by lowering credit spreads on loans to privately owned firms (POEs) relative to state-owned enterprises (SOEs), with significantly larger reductions in POE credit spreads in provinces with more outstanding government debt. Furthermore, the credit reallocation toward more productive private firms—a crowding in effect of the debt swap—significantly raised local productivity.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiaoming Li & Zheng Liu & Yuchao Peng & Zhiwei Xu, 2024. "The Crowding-In Effects of Local Government Debt in China," Working Paper Series 2024-35, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:99080
    DOI: 10.24148/wp2024-35
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Local Government Debt; credit allocation; Bank Risk Taking; misallocation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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