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The structure of a machine-built forecasting system


  • Jiaqi Chen
  • Michael Tindall


This paper describes the structure of a rule-based econometric forecasting system designed to produce multi-equation econometric models. The paper describes the functioning of a working system which builds the econometric forecasting equation for each series submitted and produces forecasts of the series. The system employs information criteria and cross validation in the equation building process, and it uses Bayesian model averaging to combine forecasts of individual series. The system outperforms standard benchmarks for a variety of national economic datasets.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiaqi Chen & Michael Tindall, 2013. "The structure of a machine-built forecasting system," Occasional Papers 13-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:feddop:2013_001

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    1. Getmansky, Mila & Lo, Andrew W. & Makarov, Igor, 2004. "An econometric model of serial correlation and illiquidity in hedge fund returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 529-609, December.
    2. N/A, 1991. "Appraisal," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 138(1), pages 3-5, November.
    3. Ravi Jagannathan & Alexey Malakhov & Dmitry Novikov, 2010. "Do Hot Hands Exist among Hedge Fund Managers? An Empirical Evaluation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(1), pages 217-255, February.
    4. Aragon, George O., 2007. "Share restrictions and asset pricing: Evidence from the hedge fund industry," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 33-58, January.
    5. Geltner, David Michael, 1991. "Smoothing in Appraisal-Based Returns," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 327-345, September.
    6. Sheridan Titman & Cristian Tiu, 2011. "Do the Best Hedge Funds Hedge?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(1), pages 123-168.
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