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Limite de endividamento e sustentabilidade fiscal no Brasil: uma abordagem via modelo quantílico auto-regressivo (QAR)

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  • Lima, Luiz Renato Regis de Oliveira
  • Sampaio, Raquel
  • Gaglianone, Wagner Piazza

Abstract

Neste artigo investigamos a sustentabilidade fiscal no Brasil através de um modelo Quantílico Auto-Regressivo (QAR). Esta metodologia nos permite caracterizar a dinâmica da dívida pública e construir uma medida limite de endividamento, compatível com a sustentabilidade fiscal. Tal limite de endividamento constitui-se um indicador de grande importância para guiar os gestores da dívida pública, de forma a mantê-la sustentável no longo prazo, evitando uma austeridade fiscal excessiva. Nossos resultados indicam que a dívida pública (federal e interna) brasileira é globalmente sustentável a 10% de significância, apesar de ter ultrapassado o limite de endividamento por inúmeras vezes nos dois últimos anos. Por fim, sugerimos uma redução de 5% na razão dívida/PIB até o final de 2006, de forma a garantir a sustentabilidade fiscal do Brasil no longo prazo. Desta forma, apresentamos um arcabouço teórico consistente, e sua respectiva aplicação prática, com o intuito de contribuir para o planejamento estratégico e a gestão da dívida pública no Brasil.

Suggested Citation

  • Lima, Luiz Renato Regis de Oliveira & Sampaio, Raquel & Gaglianone, Wagner Piazza, 2005. "Limite de endividamento e sustentabilidade fiscal no Brasil: uma abordagem via modelo quantílico auto-regressivo (QAR)," FGV/EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 602, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  • Handle: RePEc:fgv:epgewp:602
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    Cited by:

    1. Monteiro, Paulo Klinger, 2009. "First-price auction symmetric equilibria with a general distribution," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 256-269, January.
    2. Flôres Junior, Renato Galvão & Watanuki, Masakazu, 2006. "Integration options for mercosul - an investigation Uusing the AMIDA Model," FGV/EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 610, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
    3. Flôres Junior, Renato Galvão, 2006. "The diversity of diversity: further methodological considerations on the use of the concept in cultural economics," FGV/EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 626, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
    4. Aloisio Araujo & Mario Pascoa & Juan Pablo Torres-Martinez, 2005. "Bubbles, collateral and monetary equilibrium," Textos para discussão 513, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
    5. Rivano, Ricardo de Oliveira & Wallace, Neil, 2006. "New models of old(?) payment questions," FGV/EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 619, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
    6. Renato G. Flôres & Maria Paula Fontoura & Rogério Guerra Santos, 2007. "Foreign Direct Investment Spillovers in Portugal: Additional Lessons from a Country Study," The European Journal of Development Research, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 372-390.
    7. Cysne, Rubens Penha, 2006. "Income inequality in a job-search model with heterogeneous discount factors: (revised version, forthcoming 2006, Revista Economia)," FGV/EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 611, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
    8. Flôres Junior, Renato Galvão, 2006. "Dois ensaios sobre diversidade cultural e o comércio de serviços," FGV/EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 622, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
    9. Cysne, Rubens Penha, 2006. "An intra-household approach to the welfare costs of inflation (Revised Version, Forthcoming 2006, Estudos Econômicos)," FGV/EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 612, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).

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