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Using Expert Judgment to Assess Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change: Evidence From a Conjoint Choice Survey

Author

Listed:
  • Anna Alberini

    (University of Maryland)

  • Aline Chiabai

    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei)

  • Lucija Muehlenbachs

    (AREC, University of Maryland)

Abstract

We use conjoint choice questions to ask public health and climate change experts, contacted at professional meetings in 2003 and 2004, which of two hypothetical countries, A or B, they deem to have the higher adaptive capacity to certain effects of climate change on human health. These hypothetical countries are described by a vector of seven attributes, including per capita income, inequality in the distribution of income, measures of the health status of the population, the health care system, and access to information. Probit models indicate that our respondents regard per capita income, inequality in the distribution of income, universal health care coverage, and high access to information as important determinants of adaptive capacity. A universal-coverage health care system and a high level of access to information are judged to be equivalent to $12,000-$14,000 in per capita income. We use the estimated coefficients and country sociodemographics to construct an index of adaptive capacity for several countries. In panel-data regressions, this index is a good predictor of mortality in climatic disasters, even after controlling for other determinants of sensitivity and exposure, and for per capita income. We conclude that our conjoint choice questions provide a novel and promising approach to eliciting expert judgments in the climate change arena.

Suggested Citation

  • Anna Alberini & Aline Chiabai & Lucija Muehlenbachs, 2005. "Using Expert Judgment to Assess Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change: Evidence From a Conjoint Choice Survey," Working Papers 2005.106, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  • Handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2005.106
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Le–Le Zou, 2012. "The impacting factors of vulnerability to natural hazards in China: an analysis based on structural equation model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 62(1), pages 57-70, May.
    2. P. Debels & C. Szlafsztein & P. Aldunce & C. Neri & Y. Carvajal & M. Quintero-Angel & A. Celis & A. Bezanilla & D. Martínez, 2009. "IUPA: a tool for the evaluation of the general usefulness of practices for adaptation to climate change and variability," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 50(2), pages 211-233, August.
    3. R. Dunford & P. Harrison & J. Jäger & M. Rounsevell & R. Tinch, 2015. "Exploring climate change vulnerability across sectors and scenarios using indicators of impacts and coping capacity," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 128(3), pages 339-354, February.
    4. Richard S. J. Tol, 2010. "The Economic Impact of Climate Change," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 11(s1), pages 13-37, May.
    5. Heuson, Clemens & Gawel, Erik & Gebhardt, Oliver & Hansjürgens, Bernd & Lehmann, Paul & Meyer, Volker & Schwarze, Reimund, 2012. "Fundamental questions on the economics of climate adaptation: Outlines of a new research programme," UFZ Reports 05/2012, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ).
    6. repec:eee:ecolec:v:137:y:2017:i:c:p:70-82 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Heuson, Clemens & Gawel, Erik & Gebhardt, Oliver & Hansjürgens, Bernd & Lehmann, Paul & Meyer, Volker & Schwarze, Reimund, 2012. "Ökonomische Grundfragen der Klimaanpassung: Umrisse eines neuen Forschungsprogramms," UFZ Reports 02/2012, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ).
    8. Richard S. J. Tol, 2009. "The Economic Effects of Climate Change," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(2), pages 29-51, Spring.
    9. Aline Chiabai & Dirk Rübbelke & Lisa Maurer, 2013. "ICT applications in the research into environmental sustainability: a user preferences approach," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 81-100, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Adaptive capacity; Climate change; Human health effects; Extreme events; Heat waves; Vector-borne illnesses; Conjoint choice; Vulnerability; Sensitivity;

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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