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Economic and Political Impacts of the Belt and Road Initiative on Western Nations in Infrastructure Investment Competitions

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  • Shuhei NISHITATENO
  • Yasuyuki TODO

Abstract

China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has led to a global proliferation of large-scale infrastructure projects. From the perspective of Western nations, the impacts of BRI infrastructure investments on economic, political, and security interests pose a significant concern. This paper examines the effects of BRI on Japanese overseas infrastructure projects and diplomatic relations between Japan and BRI countries. Utilizing a staggered difference-in-differences research design with a panel dataset covering 138 low- and middle-income countries from 2001 to 2020, we find that the BRI crowded out Japanese infrastructure projects and reduced political leaders’ visits from BRI countries to Japan. These effects are particularly pronounced for nations in the East Asia and Pacific and South Asia regions, where Japan-China competition for infrastructure investments is most intense. Furthermore, we identify the expansion of Chinese overseas infrastructure projects, particularly aid-based rather than debt-financed projects, as a key mechanism driving these effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Shuhei NISHITATENO & Yasuyuki TODO, 2025. "Economic and Political Impacts of the Belt and Road Initiative on Western Nations in Infrastructure Investment Competitions," Discussion papers 25034, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    • Handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:25034
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bird, Julia & Lebrand, Mathilde & Venables, Anthony J., 2020. "The Belt and Road Initiative: Reshaping economic geography in Central Asia?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    2. Bastos, Paulo, 2020. "Exposure of belt and road economies to China trade shocks," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    3. Bandiera, Luca & Tsiropoulos, Vasileios, 2020. "A Framework to Assess Debt Sustainability under the Belt and Road Initiative," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • P00 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - General - - - General

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