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Oil Prices and Venezuela's Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Mark Weisbrot
  • Rebecca Ray

Abstract

This paper looks at Venezuela’s export revenue, imports, and trade and current account balances under a range of oil price outcomes for the next two years. It finds that Venezuela would run large current account surpluses for prices between $60-90 per barrel, and would even run a small surplus with prices at $50 per barrel. (Most oil industry estimates for the next two years are in the range of $80-90 per barrel). The authors conclude that Venezuela is unlikely to run into foreign exchange constraints in the foreseeable future, and can pursue expansionary fiscal policies to counter any economic downturn.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark Weisbrot & Rebecca Ray, 2008. "Oil Prices and Venezuela's Economy," CEPR Reports and Issue Briefs 2008-30, Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR).
  • Handle: RePEc:epo:papers:2008-30
    as

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    File URL: http://www.cepr.net/documents/publications/venezuela_2008_11.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Venezuela; Venezuelan oil exports; Venezuelan government revenue;

    JEL classification:

    • E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • F - International Economics
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean
    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy

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