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Investment choice and inflation uncertainty


  • Fischer, Gregory


This paper investigates the relationship between infation uncertainty and investment using a panel of loan-level data from small businesses. Micro-level data makes it possible to study phenomena that are obscured in country or industry aggregates. The data show that periods of increased inflation uncertainty are associated with substantial reductions in total investment. Moreover, there is a shift in the composition of investment away from fixed assets and towards working capital - the more flexible factor of production - and fixed asset investment exhibits periods of inaction consistent with real option models of investment under uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Fischer, Gregory, 2013. "Investment choice and inflation uncertainty," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 54259, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:54259

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    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Yizhong & Chen, Carl R. & Chen, Lifang & Huang, Ying Sophie, 2016. "Overinvestment, inflation uncertainty, and managerial overconfidence: Firm level analysis of Chinese corporations," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 54-69.
    2. Casto Martín Montero Kuscevic & Marco Antonio del Río Rivera & J. Sebastian Leguizamon, 2018. "Inflation volatility and economic growth in Bolivia: a regional analysis," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 36-46, January.
    3. Umar Farooq & Jaleel Ahmed & Shamshair Khan, 2021. "Do the macroeconomic factors influence the firm's investment decisions? A generalized method of moments (GMM) approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 790-801, January.
    4. Sonan Memon & Irfan A. Qureshi, 2021. "Income inequality and macroeconomic instability," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 758-789, May.

    More about this item


    inflation; investment; uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D92 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice, Investment, Capacity, and Financing
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages


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