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On the construction of conditional probability densities in the Brownian and compound Poisson filtrations

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  • Gapeev, Pavel V.
  • Jeanblanc, Monique

Abstract

In this paper, we construct supermartingales valued in [0,1] as solutions of an appropriate stochastic differential equation on a given reference filtration generated by either a Brownian motion or a compound Poisson process. Then, by means of the results contained in [M. Jeanblanc and S. Song, Stochastic Processes Appl. 121 (2011) 1389–1410], it is possible to construct an associated random time on some extended probability space admitting such a given supermartingale as conditional survival process and we shall check that this construction (with a particular choice of supermartingale) implies that Jacod’s equivalence hypothesis, that is, the existence of a family of strictly positive conditional probability densities for the random times with respect to the reference filtration, is satisfied. We use the components of the multiplicative decomposition of the constructed supermartingales to provide explicit expressions for the conditional probability densities of the random times on the Brownian and compound Poisson filtrations.

Suggested Citation

  • Gapeev, Pavel V. & Jeanblanc, Monique, 2024. "On the construction of conditional probability densities in the Brownian and compound Poisson filtrations," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 121059, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:121059
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    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/121059/
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Axel Grorud & Monique Pontier, 1998. "Insider Trading in a Continuous Time Market Model," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 1(03), pages 331-347.
    2. Fontana, Claudio, 2018. "The strong predictable representation property in initially enlarged filtrations under the density hypothesis," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 128(3), pages 1007-1033.
    3. Amendinger, Jürgen, 2000. "Martingale representation theorems for initially enlarged filtrations," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 101-116, September.
    4. Savas Dayanik & Semih Onur Sezer, 2006. "Compound Poisson Disorder Problem," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 31(4), pages 649-672, November.
    5. Gapeev, Pavel V., 2005. "The disorder problem for compound Poisson processes with exponential jumps," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 3219, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Li, Libo & Rutkowski, Marek, 2012. "Random times and multiplicative systems," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 122(5), pages 2053-2077.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    conditional probability density process; Brownian motion; compound Poisson process; Jacod's equivalence hypothesis; Small Grant from the Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines (STICERD) at the LSE;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General

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