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Yapisal Kirilma Altinda Para Talebinin Istikrari: Türkiye Örnegi

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  • Nazif Catik

    (Department of Economics, Ege University)

Abstract

(This paper is in Turkish) This study investigates the stability of the relationship between demand for real money, real income, and interest rates in Turkey using quarterly data for the period from 1988:I to 2005: IV. According to conventional stability tests the demand for money is subject to serious parameter instabilities, especially during the periods of economic crises. Zivot and Andrews (1992) unit root tests show the existence of structural breaks in the variables, but the existence of breaks do not change the results obtained from the conventional ADF tests. Although the standard multivariate cointegration analysis reveals a longrun relationship between variables, the evidence of cointegration is not present when a structural break is found in the relationship using Gregory and Hansen (1996) methodology. These findings show that Central Bank of Turkey must be cautious in using monetary aggregates as a potential indicator of monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Nazif Catik, 2006. "Yapisal Kirilma Altinda Para Talebinin Istikrari: Türkiye Örnegi," Working Papers 0611, Ege University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ege:wpaper:0611
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    File URL: http://iibf.ege.edu.tr/economics/papers/wp06-11.pdf
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    Keywords

    Money Demand; Structural Break; Zivot-Andrews Unit Root Test; Gregory-Hansen Cointegration Test; Para Talebi; Yapisal Kirilma; Zivot-Andrews Birim Kök Testi; Gregory-Hansen Esbütünlesme Testi;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money

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