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An Empirical Examination of Term Structure Models with Regime Shifts

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  • Kenc, Turalay

    (Imperial College)

  • John Driffill
  • Martin Sola

Abstract

We examine several continuous-time term structure models in which the short rate is subject both to continuous changes and to discrete shifts. Several regime-switching term structure models are developed, with regime-dependence in various combinations of their drift and diffusion parameters. We examine their predictive power. Our empirical analysis suggests that it is important to attempt to specify the switching model correctly: badly parameterized switching models may not be an improvement (in terms of pricing) over models which do not allow for regime switching, even when there are clear breaks in the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Kenc, Turalay & John Driffill & Martin Sola, 2003. "An Empirical Examination of Term Structure Models with Regime Shifts," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 119, Royal Economic Society.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecj:ac2003:119
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    Cited by:

    1. Monfort, A. & Pegoraro, F., 2007. "Switching VARMA Term Structure Models - Extended Version," Working papers 191, Banque de France.
    2. Christina Erlwein & Rogemar Mamon, 2009. "An online estimation scheme for a Hull–White model with HMM-driven parameters," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 18(1), pages 87-107, March.
    3. Andrei Cozma & Christoph Reisinger, 2015. "A mixed Monte Carlo and PDE variance reduction method for foreign exchange options under the Heston-CIR model," Papers 1509.01479, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2016.
    4. Jardet, Caroline & Monfort, Alain & Pegoraro, Fulvio, 2013. "No-arbitrage Near-Cointegrated VAR(p) term structure models, term premia and GDP growth," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 389-402.
    5. Choi Seungmoon, 2009. "Regime-Switching Univariate Diffusion Models of the Short-Term Interest Rate," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 1-41, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    term structure of interest rates; bond yields; stochastic discount factor/pricing kernel; regime switching;

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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