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The Past and Future of Japan's Household Saving Rate (in Japanese: 「日本の家計貯蓄率の過去と将来」)

Author

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  • Charles Yuji Horioka

Abstract

本稿では、日本の家計貯蓄率の過去と将来について検証し、日本の家計貯蓄率は過去に おいて常に高かった訳ではなく、戦後に限れば、15%の水準を上回ったのは、1961～86 年の26 年間の間だけであったということを示す。なお、日本の家計貯蓄率は1970 年代 半ばまでは上昇傾向を示したが、（新型コロナウイルスの影響が大きかった2020-21 年 の期間を除けば）1970 年代半ば以降、低下傾向を示しており、今後、人口の高齢化に伴 ってさらなる低下を見せ、マイナスにまで落ち込む見通しであるということを示す。さ らに、日本の家計貯蓄率の最も重要な決定要因は人口の年齢構成であり、人口の年齢構 成によって日本の家計貯蓄率の水準も、過去および将来の動向もおおむね説明できると いうことを示す。

Suggested Citation

  • Charles Yuji Horioka, 2026. "The Past and Future of Japan's Household Saving Rate (in Japanese: 「日本の家計貯蓄率の過去と将来」)," ISER Discussion Paper 1305, Institute of Social and Economic Research, The University of Osaka.
    • Handle: RePEc:dpr:wpaper:1305
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Charles Yuji Horioka, 2026. "The Impact of Population Aging on the Household Saving Rate: The Case of Japan," ISER Discussion Paper 1301, Institute of Social and Economic Research, The University of Osaka.
    2. Horioka, Charles Yuji & Niimi, Yoko, 2020. "Was the expansion of housing credit in Japan good or bad?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    3. Horioka, Charles Yuji, 2010. "The (dis)saving behavior of the aged in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 151-158, August.
    4. Charles Yuji Horioka, 2019. "Are The Japanese Unique? Evidence From Saving And Bequest Behavior," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 64(01), pages 5-22, March.
    5. Charles Yuji Horioka, 2021. "Is the selfish life-cycle model more applicable in Japan and, if so, why? A literature survey," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 157-187, March.
    6. Takashi Unayama & Yasutaka Yoneta, 2018. "The Discrepancy Between the Household Saving Rates in Micro and Macro Statistics: An Adjustment Method," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 14(4), pages 765-776, July.
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