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Achieving the MDGs in Yemen. An Assessment


  • Abdulmajeed Al-Batuly

    (Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation, Sana’a)

  • Mohamed Al-Hawri

    (Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation, Sana’a)

  • Martin Cicowiez

    (CEDLAS-UNLP, La Plata, Argentina)

  • Hans Lofgren

    (Development Economics Prospects Group World Bank, Washington, D.C.)

  • Mohammad Pournik

    (UNDP, Regional Center for Arab States, Cairo)


Once the current political crisis in Yemen has been resolved, it will be ever more urgent to speed up progress, including Millennium Development Goal (MDG) achievements. Drawing on simulations with the Maquette for MDG Simulations (MAMS), a model for strategy analysis, and a linked microsimulation model, this paper addresses Yemen’s MDG challenges. A first simulation set considers scaled-up government actions with the aim of fully achieving the 2015 international MDG targets with required additional financing from foreign or domestic sources. The main finding is sobering but not surprising: given the required expansion of MDG-related services, on-time achievement of key MDG targets does not appear to have been a realistic objective even if the government, hypothetically, would have expanded services with grant aid financing starting from 2005; macroeconomic stability, government efficiency, and the production of tradables would all have suffered due to the size of spending and aid increases as well as the resulting real exchange rate appreciation. The results suggest that countries, instead of relying on international targets, should set MDG targets grounded in their own reality. In light of these results, the authors designed a second simulation set that is focused on the remaining period up to 2015, and on what may be feasible once the current conflict has been settled. The simulations introduce moderate increases in foreign aid or government allocative efficiency. The government uses the resulting fiscal space for spending and service expansion in infrastructure and human development without losses in productive efficiency. The results suggest that, under these conditions, substantial improvements could still be achieved.

Suggested Citation

  • Abdulmajeed Al-Batuly & Mohamed Al-Hawri & Martin Cicowiez & Hans Lofgren & Mohammad Pournik, 2012. "Achieving the MDGs in Yemen. An Assessment," CEDLAS, Working Papers 0131, CEDLAS, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
  • Handle: RePEc:dls:wpaper:0131

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. David G. Blanchflower & Andrew J. Oswald, 1995. "The Wage Curve," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026202375x, July.
    2. World Bank, 2006. "Tracking Basic Education Expenditure in Yemen : Analyses of Public Resource Management and Teacher Absenteeism," World Bank Other Operational Studies 8156, The World Bank.
    3. International Monetary Fund, 2009. "Analyzing Fiscal Space Using the MAMS Model - An Application to Burkina Faso," IMF Working Papers 09/227, International Monetary Fund.
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    More about this item


    Millennium Development Goals; Yemen; Computable General Equilibrium; MAMS;

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

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