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The Dynamics of Global Crude Oil Production

Author

Listed:
  • Aleksandar Zaklan
  • Georg Zachmann
  • Anne Neumann

Abstract

We analyze the dynamic effect of prices and price volatility on current oil production, both on the level of country groups and the major individual producer countries. A comprehensive dataset at monthly frequency allows us to include a rich lag structure while controlling for key global and local determinants as well as seasonality. Our set of explanatory variables also includes real economic activity, investment, the strength of the U.S. dollar and institutional quality. We provide a naïve regression analysis using a broad model to show that lagged explanatory variables are important determinants of current oil production. We find that the reaction of oil production is heterogeneous across both country groups and the major individual producer countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Aleksandar Zaklan & Georg Zachmann & Anne Neumann, 2010. "The Dynamics of Global Crude Oil Production," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1075, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1075
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    File URL: https://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.363446.de/dp1075.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Jobling, Andrew & Jamasb, Tooraj, 2017. "Price volatility and demand for oil: A comparative analysis of developed and developing countries," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 96-113.
    2. Robert Socha & Piotr Wdowiński, 2018. "Crude oil price and speculative activity: a cointegration analysis," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 10(3), pages 263-304, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crude oil; prices and production; dynamic time series;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D43 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
    • L13 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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