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Research note: comparing ideal family size with observed and forecasted completed cohort fertility in Denmark and Norway

Author

Listed:
  • Peter Fallesen
  • Lars Dommermuth
  • Julia Hellstrand

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

  • Emil Simonsen
  • Lisbeth Trille Gylling Loft
  • Laust H. Mortensen

Abstract

We examine whether cohort ideals for children exhibit similar trends as those produced by cohort fertility forecasts in Denmark and Norway – two Nordic countries on diverging fertility trajectories. We use recent data from the Generation and Gender Survey to obtain measures of stated ideal family sizes and compare these stated ideals to those suggested by forecasts. In both Denmark and Norway, women express higher ideal family sizes than the number of children they can expect to have. For Denmark, the difference between stated ideal and expected number of children is stable over forecasts for more recent birth cohorts, whereas for Norway there is an increasing gap across recent birth cohorts between women’s ideal number of children and their expected cohort fertility driven by forecasted decline in cohort fertility. Norway either must see a fertility schedule for cohorts still in the childbearing age drastically different to any schedule ever recorded previously or should expect an increasing deficit in childbearing quantum relative to ideals. Keywords: fertility, forecasting, Generation and Gender Survey, ideals, Nordic countries

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Fallesen & Lars Dommermuth & Julia Hellstrand & Emil Simonsen & Lisbeth Trille Gylling Loft & Laust H. Mortensen, 2022. "Research note: comparing ideal family size with observed and forecasted completed cohort fertility in Denmark and Norway," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2022-031, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2022-031
    DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2022-031
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. C. L. Comolli & G. Neyer & G. Andersson & L. Dommermuth & P. Fallesen & M. Jalovaara & A. Klængur Jónsson & M. Kolk & T. Lappegård, 2021. "Beyond the Economic Gaze: Childbearing During and After Recessions in the Nordic Countries," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 37(2), pages 473-520, April.
    2. Gunnar Andersson, 2004. "Childbearing Developments in Denmark, Norway, and Sweden from the 1970s to the 1990s: A Comparison," Demographic Research Special Collections, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 3(7), pages 155-176.
    3. Kateryna Savelieva & Natalie Nitsche & Venla Berg & Anneli Miettinen & Anna Rotkirch & Markus Jokela, 2021. "Birth cohort changes in fertility ideals: evidence from repeated cross-sectional surveys in Finland," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2021-010, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    4. Ann-Zofie Duvander & Trude Lappegård & Gerda Neyer & Synøve N. Andersen & Ida Viklund & Ólöf Garðarsdóttir, 2019. "Parental leave policies and continued childbearing in Iceland, Norway, and Sweden," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 40(51), pages 1501-1528.
    5. Julia Hellstrand & Jessica Nisén & Vitor Miranda & Peter Fallesen & Lars Dommermuth & Mikko Myrskylä, 2020. "Not just later, but fewer: novel trends in cohort fertility in the Nordic countries," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2020-007, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    6. Gøsta Esping-Andersen & Francesco C. Billari, 2015. "Re-theorizing Family Demographics," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 41(1), pages 1-31, March.
    7. Gunnar Andersson & Trude Lappegård & Lisbeth B. Knudsen & Andres Vikat & Kathrin Teschner & Gerda Neyer & Marit Rønsen & Kari Skrede, 2009. "Cohort fertility patterns in the Nordic countries," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 20(14), pages 313-352.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Denmark; Norway;

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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