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Macro-demographic effects of the transition to adulthood: multistate stable population theory and an application to Italy


  • Francesco C. Billari

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

  • Piero Manfredi
  • Alessandro Valentini


We exploit a multistate generalisation of a classical, one-sex, stable population model to evaluate structural and long-term effects of changes in the attainment of adulthood. The demographic framework that inspired this paper is provided by Italy, where a strong delay in the transition to adulthood and union formation has been observed over the last several decades. Italy has also experienced very low fertility levels, and the subsequent ageing problems have become of primary concern. We first discuss a theoretical framework based on the model developed by Inaba (1996) and then include the process of transition to adulthood. We consider explicitly some specifications of the general model, and we present two distinct empirical applications, one using macrosimulation and the other one using a linear approximation. Our principal aim is to evaluate the impact of the delay in the attainment of adulthood on reproduction and on the age structure of the population. (AUTHORS)

Suggested Citation

  • Francesco C. Billari & Piero Manfredi & Alessandro Valentini, 1999. "Macro-demographic effects of the transition to adulthood: multistate stable population theory and an application to Italy," MPIDR Working Papers WP-1999-014, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-1999-014

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. J. Udry & Naomi Morris, 1967. "Seasonality of coitus and seasonality of birth," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 4(2), pages 673-679, June.
    2. Victor Levy, 1986. "Seasonal fertility cycles in rural Egypt: Behavioral and biological linkages," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 23(1), pages 13-30, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. FFF1Francesco NNN1Billari, 2004. "Becoming an Adult in Europe: A Macro(/Micro)-Demographic Perspective," Demographic Research Special Collections, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 3(2), pages 15-44, April.
    2. Luciano Fanti & Mimmo Iannelli & Piero Manfredi, 2010. "Endogenous Age Structure in Descriptive Macroeconomic Growth Models: A General Framework and Some Steady State Analysis," Chapters,in: Institutional and Social Dynamics of Growth and Distribution, chapter 9 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Hisashi Inaba, 2009. "The net reproduction rate and the type-reproduction number in multiregional demography," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 7(1), pages 197-215.
    4. Francesco C. Billari & Hans-Peter Kohler, 2002. "Patterns of lowest-low fertility in Europe," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2002-040, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    5. Kiyosi Hirosima, 2010. "Another tempo distortion: analyzing controlled fertility by age-specific marital fertility rate," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2010-003, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    6. Tomáš Sobotka & Laurent Toulemon, 2008. "Overview Chapter 4: Changing family and partnership behaviour," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 19(6), pages 85-138, July.
    7. Mohammad Jalal Abbasi-Shavazi & Rasoul Sadeghi & Hossein Mahmoudian & Gholamreza Jamshidiha, 2012. "Marriage and Family Formation of the Second-Generation Afghans in Iran: Insights from a Qualitative Study," International Migration Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(4), pages 828-860, December.

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    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General


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