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Shock on Variable or Shock on Distribution with Application to Stress-Tests

Author

Listed:
  • Simon Dubecq

    (Banque de France)

  • Christian Gouriéroux

    (CREST, University of Toronto)

Abstract

The shocks on a stochastic system can be defined by means of either distribution, or variable. We relate these approaches and provide the link between the global and local effects of both types of shocks. These methodologies are used to perform stress-tests on the portfolio of financial institutions by means of shocks on systematic factors, for which we distinguish the cases of crystallized and optimally updated portfolios. The approach is illustrated by an analysis of the risk of sovereign bonds of the Eurozone.

Suggested Citation

  • Simon Dubecq & Christian Gouriéroux, 2012. "Shock on Variable or Shock on Distribution with Application to Stress-Tests," Working Papers 2012-03, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    • Handle: RePEc:crs:wpaper:2012-03
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    File URL: http://crest.science/RePEc/wpstorage/2012-03.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. C. Gouriéroux & J.‐C. Héam & A. Monfort, 2012. "Bilateral exposures and systemic solvency risk," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 45(4), pages 1273-1309, November.
    2. Darne, O. & Levy-Rueff, O. & Pop, A., 2013. "Calibrating Initial Shocks in Bank Stress Test Scenarios: An Outlier Detection Based Approach," Working papers 426, Banque de France.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Shock; Copula; Extreme Risk; Stress-Test; Factor Model; Systemic Risk; Portfolio Management; Sovereign Bonds;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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