Investing for the Long-Run in European Real Estate. Does Predictability Matter?
We calculate optimal portfolio choices for a long-horizon, risk-averse European investor who diversifies among stocks, bonds, real estate, and cash, when excess asset returns are predictable. Simulations are performed for scenarios involving different risk aversion levels, horizons, and statistical models capturing predictability in risk premia. Importantly, under one of the scenarios, the investor takes into account the parameter uncertainty implied by the use of estimated coefficients to characterize predictability. We find that real estate ought to play a significant role in optimal portfolio choices, with weights between 10 and 30% in most cases. Under plausible assumptions, the welfare costs of either ignoring predictability or restricting portfolio choices to financial assets only are found to be in the order of at least 100 basis points per year. These results are robust to changes in the benchmarks and in the statistical framework.
|Date of creation:||Mar 2005|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Via Real Collegio 30, 10024 Moncalieri (TO)|
Phone: 39 011 6705040
Fax: +39 011 6705042
Web page: http://www.cerp.carloalberto.org
More information through EDIRC
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:crp:wpaper:40. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Silvia Maero)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.