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Methodological Issues and Models in 'History Friendly' Simulations

  • Christian Garavaglia


    (KITeS, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy - University of Milano-Bicocca, Faculty of Statistics, Milan, Italy)

Simulation techniques have proliferated a lot in the last years. In economics the industrial dynamics approach makes use of simulation techniques to understand the complexity of the industrial process of continuous change. Among these models, a new branch of studies called “History-friendly” models aims at establishing a close link between formal theory, developing stand-alone theoretical simulation models, and empirical evidence, as it stems from a rigorous study of the economic environment under exam. The paper aims to give a methodological contribution to the “History-friendly” methodology. We discuss the flexibility of simulation techniques in representing complex environments. We analyse the relationship between empirical evidence and the implementation of the simulation model. We study “History-friendly” analyses and counterfactuals. A contribution to define the role of “History-friendly” models in the debate about empirical validation of simulations is given. Finally, some examples of “History-friendly” models are examined.

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Paper provided by KITeS, Centre for Knowledge, Internationalization and Technology Studies, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy in its series KITeS Working Papers with number 014.

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Length: 44 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2009
Date of revision: Jan 2009
Handle: RePEc:cri:cespri:kites14_wp
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