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Methodological Issues and Models in 'History Friendly' Simulations

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  • Christian Garavaglia

    () (KITeS, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy - University of Milano-Bicocca, Faculty of Statistics, Milan, Italy)

Abstract

Simulation techniques have proliferated a lot in the last years. In economics the industrial dynamics approach makes use of simulation techniques to understand the complexity of the industrial process of continuous change. Among these models, a new branch of studies called “History-friendly” models aims at establishing a close link between formal theory, developing stand-alone theoretical simulation models, and empirical evidence, as it stems from a rigorous study of the economic environment under exam. The paper aims to give a methodological contribution to the “History-friendly” methodology. We discuss the flexibility of simulation techniques in representing complex environments. We analyse the relationship between empirical evidence and the implementation of the simulation model. We study “History-friendly” analyses and counterfactuals. A contribution to define the role of “History-friendly” models in the debate about empirical validation of simulations is given. Finally, some examples of “History-friendly” models are examined.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Garavaglia, 2009. "Methodological Issues and Models in 'History Friendly' Simulations," KITeS Working Papers 014, KITeS, Centre for Knowledge, Internationalization and Technology Studies, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy, revised Jan 2009.
  • Handle: RePEc:cri:cespri:kites14_wp
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    File URL: ftp://ftp.unibocconi.it/pub/RePEc/cri/papers/KitesWP14.pdf
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    Keywords

    Simulation; Industrial dynamics; “History Friendly” models; Methodology; Complexity;

    JEL classification:

    • B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • O39 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Other
    • B52 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Current Heterodox Approaches - - - Historical; Institutional; Evolutionary

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