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European Monetary Union or Hard EMS?

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  • Currie, David
  • Levine, Paul L
  • Pearlman, Joseph

Abstract

This paper contributes to the debate engendered by the Delors Report on the issue of European Monetary Union. It focuses on the options of a strengthened (or hard-) EMS, with a commitment to a fixed exchange rate relative to the Deutschmark, or a European central bank with full monetary union (EMU). Under hard-EMS, an anti-inflationary reputation is acquired by all as a result of Bundesbank credibility. As regards EMU, it is possible that too rapid a move through the latter stages of the Delors process will produce a central bank with little or no anti-inflation credibility. Here we make starkest assumption of no credibility under EMU, and compare it with hard-EMS for various supply and demand shocks using a two-bloc model, the latter exhibiting short-run wage/price stickiness but with long run natural rate properties. A non-EMS regime with floating exchange rates is used to examine the incentive compatibility of hard-EMS and EMU, with a cooperative reputational regime acting as a benchmark.

Suggested Citation

  • Currie, David & Levine, Paul L & Pearlman, Joseph, 1990. "European Monetary Union or Hard EMS?," CEPR Discussion Papers 472, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:472
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    Cited by:

    1. Jay Bryson, 1994. "Macroeconomic stabilization through monetary and fiscal policy coordination: Implications for European Monetary Union," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 307-326, October.
    2. Andrew Brociner, 1993. "L'Union monétaire européenne : une revue de la littérature théorique," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 43(1), pages 349-363.
    3. Bas Van Aarle & Jacob Engwerda & Joseph Plasmans & Arie Weeren, 2001. "Macroeconomic Policy Interaction under EMU: A Dynamic Game Approach," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 29-60, January.
    4. Patrick Artus, 1992. "Passage à l'union économique et monétaire en Europe : effets sur la croissance et les politiques budgétaires," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 106(5), pages 123-137.
    5. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Funke, Norbert, 1994. "A Two-Country Analysis of International Targeting of Nominal GNP," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233377, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
    6. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Ella Kavanagh, 2001. "Inflation Under Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes: What Happens When Countries Differ in Size?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 145-161, April.
    7. VAN AARLE, Bas & ENGWERDA, Jacob C. & PLASMANS, Joseph E.J. & WEEREN, Arie, 1999. "Monetary and fiscal policy design under EMU: a dynamic game approach," Working Papers 1999041, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Applied Economics.
    8. Henri Sterdyniak & Pierre Villa, 1993. "Régimes de change et coordination des politiques économiques en Europe," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 43(1), pages 307-348.

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