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A Valuation Formula for LDC Debt

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  • Cohen, Daniel

Abstract

This paper gives a valuation formula for LDC debt that is used to assess: i) the price at which a buy-back of the debt is advantageous to the country (we shall see that it is likely to be half the observed market price); ii) the value to the creditors of having the flows of payment guaranteed against the extrinsic stochastic disturbance faced by the country (we shall see that it may not exceed 25%); iii) the trade-off between growth of payments and levels of payments (we show that a 1% additional growth rate is worth a 15% increase of the flows). We offer finally an assessment of the Mexican agreement reached in early 1990.

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  • Cohen, Daniel, 1990. "A Valuation Formula for LDC Debt," CEPR Discussion Papers 460, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:460
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    1. Claessens, Stijn & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1990. "Secondary Market Prices Under Alternative Debt Reduction Schemes: An Option Pricing Approach with an Application to Mexico," CEPR Discussion Papers 415, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Michael P. Dooley, 1988. "Buy-Backs and Market Valuation of External Debt," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 35(2), pages 215-229, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kim Oosterlinck & Loredana Ureche-Rangau, 2004. "Entre la peste et le choléra: le détenteur d'obligations peut préférer la répudiation au défaut," Working Papers CEB 04-021.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    2. Hayri, Aydin, 2000. "Debt relief," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 137-152, October.
    3. Ramcharran, Harri, 1999. "The determinants of secondary market prices for developing country loans: the impact of country risk," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 173-186.
    4. Miller, Marcus & Zhang, Lei, 2000. "Sovereign Liquidity Crises: The Strategic Case for a Payments Standstill," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(460), pages 335-362, January.
    5. Dongchul Cho & Kiseok Hong, 2001. "Currency Crisis of Korea: Internal Weakness or External Interdependence?," NBER Chapters, in: Regional and Global Capital Flows: Macroeconomic Causes and Consequences, pages 337-373, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1990. "Mexico's external debt restructuring in 1989-90," Policy Research Working Paper Series 424, The World Bank.
    7. Claessens, Stijn & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1990. "An option - pricing approach to secondary market debt : applied to Mexico," Policy Research Working Paper Series 333, The World Bank.
    8. Pascal François & Georges Hübner & Jean-Roch Sibille, 2011. "A Structural Balance Sheet Model of Sovereign Credit Risk," Finance, Presses universitaires de Grenoble, vol. 32(2), pages 137-165.
    9. Kim Oosterlinck & Loredana Ureche-Rangau, 2005. "Entre la peste et le choléra : le détenteur d’obligations peut préférer la répudiation au défaut…," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 79(2), pages 309-331.

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    Keywords

    Balance of Payments; LDC Debt;

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