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The Innovation Race: Large Experimental Evidence on Advanced Technologies

Author

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  • Cullen, Zöe
  • Faia, Ester
  • Guglielminetti, Elisa
  • Perez-Truglia, Ricardo
  • Rondinelli, Concetta

Abstract

We present a large-scale field experiment testing for strategic complementarities in firms' technology adoption. Our experiment was embedded in a Bank of Italy survey covering around 3,000 firms. We elicited firms' beliefs about competitors' adoption of two advanced technologies: artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics. We randomly provided half of the sample with a signal about adoption among comparable firms. Relative to this signal, most firms substantially underestimated competitors' adoption, and those provided with the information updated their expectations about competitors' future adoption. The information increased firms' intended future adoption of robotics: a 1~pp increase in the share of competitors expected to adopt advanced technologies causes a 0.732~pp increase in the firm's intention to adopt robotics by 2027. Our findings provide causal evidence on coordination in innovation and illustrate how information frictions shape technology diffusion.

Suggested Citation

  • Cullen, Zöe & Faia, Ester & Guglielminetti, Elisa & Perez-Truglia, Ricardo & Rondinelli, Concetta, 2025. "The Innovation Race: Large Experimental Evidence on Advanced Technologies," CEPR Discussion Papers 20894, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20894
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    Cited by:

    1. Ursel Baumann & Zoë B. Cullen & Ester Faia & Annalisa Ferrando & Ricardo Perez-Truglia & Judit Rariga, 2026. "Innovation without Borders? The Geography of Technological Diffusion," NBER Working Papers 35314, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C93 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Field Experiments
    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • L21 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Business Objectives of the Firm
    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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