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The Innovation Race: Large Experimental Evidence on Advanced Technologies

Author

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  • Cullen, Zöe
  • Faia, Ester
  • Guglielminetti, Elisa
  • Perez-Truglia, Ricardo
  • Rondinelli, Concetta

Abstract

We present the first large-scale field experiment test of strategic complementarities in firms' technology adoption. Our experiment was embedded in a Bank of Italy survey covering around 3,000 firms. We elicited firms' beliefs about competitors' adoption of two advanced technologies: Artificial Intelligence (AI) and robotics. We randomly provided half of the sample with accurate information about adoption rates. Most firms substantially underestimated competitors' current adoption, and when provided with information, they updated their expectations about competitors' future adoption. The information increased firms' own intended future adoption of robotics, although we do not observe a significant effect on AI adoption. Our findings provide causal evidence on coordination in innovation and illustrate how information frictions shape technology diffusion.

Suggested Citation

  • Cullen, Zöe & Faia, Ester & Guglielminetti, Elisa & Perez-Truglia, Ricardo & Rondinelli, Concetta, 2025. "The Innovation Race: Large Experimental Evidence on Advanced Technologies," CEPR Discussion Papers 20894, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20894
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • C93 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Field Experiments
    • L21 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Business Objectives of the Firm

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