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Innovation without Borders? The Geography of Technological Diffusion

Author

Listed:
  • Baumann, Ursel
  • Cullen, Zöe
  • Faia, Ester
  • Ferrando, Annalisa
  • Perez-Truglia, Ricardo
  • Rariga, Judith

Abstract

How well does innovation diffuse across geographic boundaries? To shed light on this question, we present a large-scale field experiment involving 3,300 firms across twelve European Union (EU) countries. We elicit firms' perceptions of the share of similar firms in their own country that had invested in AI, as well as the corresponding share among similar firms in the three largest EU economies. We randomly provide half of the sample with accurate information about both domestic and foreign AI investment. We show that firms substantially underestimate competitors' current AI investment, both domestically and abroad, and that they update their expectations about competitors' future adoption in response to the information treatment. The treatment also causes a statistically significant increase in firms' own expected AI investment rate (p-value

Suggested Citation

  • Baumann, Ursel & Cullen, Zöe & Faia, Ester & Ferrando, Annalisa & Perez-Truglia, Ricardo & Rariga, Judith, 2026. "Innovation without Borders? The Geography of Technological Diffusion," CEPR Discussion Papers 21601, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21601
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • C93 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Field Experiments
    • L21 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Business Objectives of the Firm

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