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Precautionary Fertility: Conceptions, Births, and Abortions around Employment Shocks

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  • Bardits, Anna
  • Adamecz, Anna
  • Bisztray, Márta
  • Weber, Andrea
  • Szabo-Morvai, Agnes

Abstract

We study fertility responses to employment shocks. Using unique Hungarian administrative data that allow linking firm-level mass layoff and closure events to individual-level records on births and abortions, we show that the main response happens in anticipation of the shock. Responses differ by the availability of dismissal protection. While pregnancies increase in anticipation of all events, births only rise in case of mass layoffs when pregnant women are protected from layoffs. If the firm closes protection is lost and we find an increase in abortions. We interpret these results as evidence for precautionary fertility behavior. Women threatened by job displacement bring births forward to exploit dismissal protection, a strategy that breaks down if the firm closes permanently.

Suggested Citation

  • Bardits, Anna & Adamecz, Anna & Bisztray, Márta & Weber, Andrea & Szabo-Morvai, Agnes, 2023. "Precautionary Fertility: Conceptions, Births, and Abortions around Employment Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 17988, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:17988
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    2. Szabó, Lajos Tamás & Erdélyi, Levente, 2024. "Munkaerő-áramlás Magyarországon 2002-2021 között teljes körű adminisztratív adatok alapján [Labour force flows in Hungary 2002-2021 based on comprehensive administrative data]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 728-754.
    3. Marco Francesconi & Daniela Sonedda, 2024. "Does Weaker Employment Protection Lower the Cost of Job Loss?," CESifo Working Paper Series 11417, CESifo.
    4. Rishabh Tyagi, 2024. "Employment uncertainty and reproductive decisions in Norway: a register-based study based on plant closures," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2024-026, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth

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